Balochistan Under Siege: Pakistan grapples with the rising wave of violent insurgency

Analysis

By Ruchika Sharma 
In an unprecedented escalation of violence, Pakistan's largest province Balochistan is witnessing a series of attacks. Less than a week ago, the Baloch Liberation Army hijacked the Jaffar Express train traveling from Quetta to Peshawar, taking approximately 400 passengers hostage and killing 26 of them. As the horror of the last week remains fresh, another devastating attack has jolted Pakistan. In the Noshki district of Balochistan, a roadside blast near a bus carrying security personnel was attacked, killing five. The BLA's Majeed Brigade has claimed responsibility for the attack, claiming 90 fatalities. The recent deadly attacks underscore the intensifying insurgency in Balochistan which is deeply rooted in historical grievances and continuous marginalization of the Baloch people.

Since Pakistan’s formation in 1947, the country has continued to struggle with nation-building, primarily due to ethnic differences and militancy, with Balochistan, the largest mineral-rich province, at the centre of these issues. Bordering Afghanistan and Iran, Balochistan is battered by insurgencies driven by political differences.

Balochistan tumultuous history began with the first Baloch revolt in 1948, shortly after Pakistan’s formation. Identity politics has increased societal conflict, perpetuating a vicious cycle of violence. The lack of inclusiveness and equity compounded by socio-economic deprivation has intensified Baloch's resentment, with only 41% of the population being literate and a 9.13% unemployment rate, reported the newspaper, Dawn. Even the data on Balochistan’s maternity rates reveals an alarming picture, with 298 deaths per 1,00,000 live births.

Systematic neglect and state’s repression

The existing disparity between Baloch's struggle for autonomy and the military usage of the greatest force to drive out insurgency leads to unsystematic violence. The Voice for Baloch Missing Persons reported over 5,000 forced disappearances. Government figures acknowledge 2,700 cases, out of which 468 remain unresolved. The widespread violation of human rights reflects a serious governance crisis. The State’s systematic neglect underscores its failure to safeguard its own population, reflecting a pattern of coercion instead of engagement with the populace.  Prolonged injustice and inequity birthed alienation forming a deadly cocktail, fuelling insurgency. Baloch views the state as an oppressor instead of as a guarantor of their rights. Repression often backfires, creating a “repression-dissent nexus’’ in which state violence rapidly increases. This concept is reflected in the Baloch insurgency, where successive governments with the military have resorted to violence. One of the examples of state repression was during General Pervez Musharraf's tenure in 2006. As per The Guardian, the killing of Baloch nationalist leader Nawab Akhtar Bugti in a mountain hideout after failed negotiations with the government sparked riots and renewed insurgency. The demand for autonomy shifted to secession. Moreover, this act of repression acted as a force multiplier for insurgent groups like the Baloch Liberation Army, which used Bugti’s death as a mark of state repression. To understand the operations of BLA, an under-researched area is the command-and-control structure, which ensures BLA’s longevity. In an interview, an anonymous Baloch leader stated that the BLA has learned lessons from the LTTE in Sri Lanka by not centralizing power in one place, as it can dismantle the group.

Eroding Ethnic identities

Another thorn is the Military regime's attempt to erode ethnic identities through demographic alteration and enforcing Islamisation, replacing different ethnic identities with a uniform Muslim identity.  The first attempt to marginalise Baloch was in 1971 when the state integrated Pashtun areas into Balochistan. Moreover, the hybrid model of Pakistan allows the government to back unlawful military actions. For example, in January 2005 a female doctor was raped in Dera Bugti. As per reports, an army officer was accused, and the government attempted to cover up. Shockingly, the president publicly defended his innocence.

The struggle for autonomy accompanied by insurgency raises serious questions regarding the treatment of ethnic minorities, showcasing the state's failure to address their grievances. The article explores the core causes of insurgency and proposes potential solutions for sustainable peace.

Theoretical Framework

Baloch, an ethnic community is found in Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan but Pakistan, have the largest concentration. Balochs have maintained their separate identity within the state boundaries. It’s believed by the community that they have been marginalized by the government because of their identity. Discrimination on this basis is sowing the seeds of anger and hatred, and the demand for autonomy is gradually shifting towards secession.

The Balochistan case can be analyzed through the Social Identity Framework by Guelke, which shows how identity-based conflicts develop when a group feels their identity is threatened or marginalized, increasing polarisation, radicalism and violence, especially in conflict and post-conflict situations. Whenever a group feels marginalised, identity serves as a vital instrument for expressing their grievance and mobilising support. Ethnic identity is ascriptive and based on shared culture. Targeted discrimination promotes nationalist sentiments triggering separatist tendencies.

Another question is why the state treats Baloch with unfair treatment and opts for oppressive measures based on their Identity. According to Galtung’s structural violence theory, violence is exerted on people based on pre-existing social conditions, highlighting systematic disparities embedded within the institutions. Structural violence can’t be viewed as direct violence, yet it’s permeable in the system. For instance, Baloch not only face socio-economic disparities but also a lack of political representation. Due to their scarce population, they have the lowest share in the federal electoral constituency. They aren’t only behind the development race but are also one of the least prioritized provinces. The central government continues to dedicate more resources to Punjab because it has 173 seats in the lower house- the national assembly, whilst Balochistan has only 20. The feeling of political oppression or marginalization in the ethnic groups is one of the significant causes behind the emergence of violence, opting for insurgency as a form of resistance. In an interview, former Baloch CM Ataullah Mengal expressed his grievance, stating that ‘’the Pakistan army only has a few hundred Baloch presence, and there is not a single Baloch in the Baloch regiment.

Another source of discontent is the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which has thrown local interests in the wind.  Being home to the Gwadar Port, Baloch sees this project as exploitative, and their opposition to the Chinese project has grown stronger. The Majeed Brigade, a faction within BLA specialising in suicide bombing, has carried a number of attacks against Chinese engineers.

Some observers consider the Gwadar project as one of Pakistan's biggest misguided ventures in history. Due to lack of documents, the generational land of locals has been sold to city developers at unbeatable prices. Their economic marginalisation and continued resource exploitation have worsened inequality and institutional bias against them. For instance, the economic marginalisation is evident as the gas-rich region only gets a 12.4% royalty for supplying gas. A copper mining project in Saindak in Chinese hands has fattened their profits by 50%. The remaining 48% goes to the central government and merely 2% to Balochistan. 

 Analysis and Policy Recommendations

The crisis in Balochistan reflects the government's ineffective ability and capabilities to foster an inclusive environment. Moving away from its self-interest, the government should prioritise local interests and respect diversity. Seeking exclusively political and militaristic solutions is unsustainable in the long term. The government's uneven treatment in the allocation of resources deprives people of their rights and dignity as well.

The vacuum filled by non-state actors will continue the low violence.  Provide accessible legal aid to locals by setting up Special courts dealing with human rights abuse cases. Instead of viewing Balochistan via a security prism, the administration should engage with the populace.

Balochistan must get an appropriate share in the ownership and revenues of federally owned oil and gas companies, as well as a fair share of revenues from the Gwadar port. Pakistan must address the core causes of conflict. It should adopt the strict policy of zero tolerance towards terrorism. Most importantly, the government should ensure that the voices of all communities are respected and heard.

Disclaimer: This paper is the author's individual scholastic contribution and does not necessarily reflect the organization's viewpoint.

Ruchika Sharma is pursuing MA in Diplomacy Law and Business from O.P Jindal Global University.  She is interested in the evolving dynamics in the world of international politics.