Bangladesh: India's new Kalboishakhi (Storm)

Analysis

By Arghya Sengupta

India’s eastern neighbor and key ally Bangladesh has just witnessed a significant political upheaval, perhaps the most important one since 1971. Sheikh Hasina has been ousted and has been replaced by a political dispensation which consists of a loose coalition of groups which have been historically difficult with India. As dark clouds gather over the horizon for Dhaka the public sentiment in the country continues to be more and more inimical to Indian presence. While the standard response from New Delhi has been of restraint there needs to be a greater engagement with Bangladeshi people at a larger level. Especially given India’s vital interest in Bangladesh over its trade routes and ports. The former Bangladesh’s Prime Minister has time and again harped on India’s friendship and has vouched for its acknowledgement to India as a formidable power in South Asia and continues to live in India. Delhi’s position in this issue can be extremely crucial in charting its course of the nation for a highly sensitive region like Bangladesh.

 Recently, the erstwhile Prime Minister of Bangladesh made sensational allegations about the United States' attempt to establish a military base in Bangladesh. This sudden domestic unrest can be part of an intricate unbalancing propelled by forces inimical to Dhaka. Chinese interests have also been piqued in the region after Sheikh Hasnia’s India visit this year and a declaration of a shared economic and transportation vision with India. The greater players have always been accused of rousing anti-government sentiments in the past through transnational actors and funding agencies. For India, there is a need to exercise greater caution when dealing with Bangladesh. New Delhi can’t afford to have another hostile neighbor at this crucial moment.For that India needs to come out of the 1971 mukti-juddho(Independence war) mindset and try to engage with economic diplomacy with Bangladesh more thoroughly and at the same time need to facilitate greater infrastructure and agents in Bangladesh. There have not been any substantial policies for Bangladeshis which are not top-down. The greater caution that India must conform to is that the political winds are shifting in Bangladesh.

 During the ongoing student protests although ostensibly unrelated to India, a wider section of Bangladeshi society sees India as a partisan player preferring the Sheikh Hasina government. The students have raised slogans like “India jadermamarbari Bangla-charotaratari” (People whose maternal house is India, should leave Bengal) and “Hare Krishna, Hare Ram-Sheikh HasinarBaapernaam”(Hare Krishna, Hare Ram is Sheikh Hasina’s father’s name) in a direct attack on India and what is believed in the streets to be a Hindu dispensation. This in turn has led to greater persecution of the already dwindling Bengali Hindu community, which can be a great cause of concern for India. The zeal that was seen in a few crickets matches by Bangladeshi fans in India’s defeat has spilled over in the streets and the campuses across Bangladesh. During the recent controversy over the new Indian train link via Bangladesh and the moribund issue of water sharing, the relaxations made by the government sparked greater criticism. There has been no rebuttal or addressing of which from either side of the government or information relays.

 Jamat-e-Islami: Return to the mainstream

 The other cause of concern for India and the minority of minorities in Bangladesh is Jamaat-e-Islami's return to mainstream politics due to the country’s increasing hostility towards the government. Jamat, while small, remained a powerful player in Bangladesh’s politics. Jamat was also part of the infamous Razakars who sided with the Pakistani army and actively participated in ethnic cleansing of Bangladeshis during the liberation war. Jamat was subsequently banned from contesting elections in 2013 and most of its leaders were jailed or went into exile during Hasina’s tenure. Sheikh Hasina also took a hardliner stance against Jamaat leaders and opened enquiries into their role in the 1971 war and hanged leading Jamaat leader Motiur Rahman.

 According to reports, Jamaat’s student wing Islami Chhatra Shibir has played a pivotal role in organizing and leading the protest which led to Hasina’s ouster from power and the installation of a civilian government. Doing so, it has regained its status of prominent political force in today’s Bangladeshi society and acceptability amongst the youth today. This is a cause of concern for India as Jamaat has openly professed its anti-India aspirations and opposition to Indian influence in the Bangladeshi economy. There have been reports of Pakistan’s ISI’s active support of ChatraShibir and involvement in the recent student protests by infiltrating the universities of Bangladesh. Some of the Jamaat leaders who were exiled are now coming back to Bangladesh and have been granted bail by the interim government. According to Prothom Alo, Bangladesh’s leading daily the Jamaat leaders have already started mobilizing and demanding a more Islamic form of Bangladesh and the release of the Jamaat leaders incarcerated for treason.These leaders are expected to hold important roles in the upcoming civilian government and administration. This means that there is going to be a major pushback against Indian interests and projects in the upcoming days from the leaders of Jamaat-e-Islami and cultural resistance by its student and youth outfits. New Delhi will do well to weather the upcoming turbulence cautiously and tighten the border controls, as the upcoming government might have interest groups which will probably foster forces inimical to India. Already International media reports of multiple attacks on Hindu temples in Bangladesh and refugees at the Bengal-Bangladesh border can cause a major policy obstacle for India, which helped Bangladesh’s creation due to the wave of refugees from Bangladesh.

 Is East Pakistan in the remaking?

 The secular forces that were part of the student protests have cautiously maintained a balance and tried to distance itself from the more hardliner elements and foreign influence charges, the BNP the biggest party in Bangladesh after Awami league have had lukewarm relations with Jamaat and Chhatra Shibir, but this might be an uneasy alliance till the time Jamaat consolidates its position in the mainstream politics. The unfortunate reality for New Delhi is it has lost its strongest ally in Asia and must forge new ways to mend relations with the upcoming government and maintain its strategic interest in the region. Historically India has been sensitive to the refugee crisis from its neighbors and will do well to maintain economic favors to protect minority interests in the Bengali nation. This unanimity in Bangladesh can only be temporary and there are chances of major setbacks due to lawlessness and chaos where the textile and export suffers a major setback. Previous experiments have shown us that usually, this means BNP-Jamaat might foster militant Islamist groups and ISI-backed outfits on its soil. The hostility also means a greater Chinese push into the region as it was thwarted earlier in its ambitions. The Bay of Bengal and BIMSTEC initiative is key to India’s security in the Indian Ocean,

New Delhi should calculate its steps in Dhaka far more carefully and take up its security concerns.

Disclaimer: The paper is the author’s individual scholastic articulation and the facts and figures quoted are duly referenced, as needed, and are believed to be correct.