Bangladesh’s dangerous turn poses serious threat to India

Analysis 

By Ruchika Sharma 

Bangladesh, now synonymous with instability and emerging threats, is rapidly turning into a fertile ground for the extremist Islamist groups to flourish. The power vacuum created after the fall of Sheikh Hasina's regime in August, because of the student-led movement, has created a perilous vacuum. The revival of extremism exemplified by the removal of the ban from Jamat-e-Islami, is now a major political force in Bangladesh. Some of the groups, like the Ansarullah Bangla Team, an Al-Qaeda affiliate, the Hizb ut-Tahrir, and the Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), pledging its allegiance to ISIS reportedly have links with Pakistan. They might clandestinely collaborate to intensify their operations against India. The internal challenge of Bangladesh threatens to turn it into a safe haven for radicals, posing a serious threat to India's national security. India now faces a 3.5-front war challenge, as hostile forces are also gaining institutional positions.

The extremist groups positioning themselves ahead of the parliamentary election present a worrying image overall. Hizb ut-Tahrir, a banned fundamentalist group since 2009 seeks to create an Islamic caliphate, its supporters were seen openly marching and spreading propaganda in Dhaka. Of even greater concern is that the interim government led by Yunus appointed Nasimul Gani, a founding HuT member, as Home Secretary and Mahfuz Alam, a HuT affiliate advocating for India's annexation, as a key aide. The alarming radicalization of the administration, compounded with the Bangladesh EC's proposal to remove the principles of secularism, socialism, and nationalism, shows how the coming days can be extremely worrying. Efforts to rewrite history by replacing 'Bangabandhu' Sheikh Mujibur Rahman with Ziaur Rahman as the declarer of independence, signals an ideological shift against India’s interests.

Since the toppling of Hasina's government relations between India and Bangladesh have been on a downhill. The tensions have further mounted over the reports of attacks on Hindus and the arrest of Hindu monk The Bangladesh Hindu Buddhist Christian Unity Council reported a staggering total of 2,010 communal incidents between August 4 and August 20. The interim government in Bangladesh has accused India of spreading misinformation about anti-Hindu violence to destabilize the caretaker regime.

Amid the volatile backdrop, the relations between the two countries reached a new low, when a Bangladesh mission in Agartala, Tripura was attacked, sparking a furious reaction from Dhaka. Since Hasina’s refuge in India, the tension has been palpable, and the resentment against India is on rise. One of the major diplomatic irritants between both the countries is Bangladesh’s demand for the extradition of Sheikh Hasina. In a statement, Muhammad Yunus asserted about pursuing the return of the ousted leader from her refuge in India. Sheikh Hasina have criticised the interim administration headed by Muhammad Yunus, accusing him of being involved in genocide.

India’s effort to ease rising tensions

After the fall of Hasina's government, in an effort to ease this mounting tension, senior Indian foreign secretary Vikram Misri visited Dhaka. Misri met with Dr. Muhammad Yunus, the Chief Adviser of Bangladesh's interim government, and Md. Touhid Hossain, the Foreign Affairs Adviser. He also engaged with Bangladesh's Foreign Secretary, Jashim Uddin. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that irrespective of the faith and religion, Bangladesh government is committed to safeguard all citizens and cited this as their internal matter.

The visit by Misri signaled New Delhi’s willingness to engage with the new regime in Bangladesh.  During his visit, he underscored that people are the primary stakeholders in both the countries. This delicate process of rebuilding ties requires patience and constant diplomatic engagement to fill the vacuum. The Bangladesh Ministry of foreign Affairs strongly condemned the Tripura attack and described it as a heinous and a blatant violation of the diplomatic missions under Vienna convention. This response marks a shift in Bangladesh foreign policy, which is now departing from its traditional stance. This shift is driven by leadership’s responsiveness to public sentiment. In this climate of chaos, it becomes important for India to address the narratives fueling anti-India sentiments that could be exploited by the adversarial forces.

Security Implications for India

Compounding this challenge are the security implications of the interim government’s decision to revoke the ban on Jamaat-e-Islami. The resurgence of extremism is alarming for India because of Bangladesh's border's proximity to India’s sensitive regions like the northeast, already disturbed by the ethnic clashes. The rise of radicalism and other affiliate groups' clandestine network with Pakistan’s ISI poses a grave challenge to India's security architecture. The ban on the Jamaat-e-Islami was imposed by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in August, accusing the party’s members of inciting unrest during the student uprising. However, the interim government under Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus revoked this ban, which had been imposed under anti-terrorism laws. The High Court had previously banned JeI in 2013 from contesting elections, citing its opposition to secularism and violation of Bangladesh’s constitution.

Jamaat-e-Islami campaigned against the creation of Bangladesh as an independent state during the independence war with Pakistan in 1971. Since 2013, most of the party leaders have been imprisoned or hanged after being convicted of crimes against humanity during 1971. Its student wing, Islamic Chhatra Shibir, founded in 1977, reportedly has connections with Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence. In Pakistan, Jamaat-e-Islami remains a key political force, with its student wing, Islami Jamiat-e-Talaba, involved in militant activities. The party’s aims to establish an Islamic state.

The lifting of the ban from JeI can have serious repercussions on regional stability and stretch India's security architecture thin, given the historical and the geopolitical sensitivities linked with Bangladesh borders with India’s northeastern states. These developments also increase the possibility of the emergence and igniting of existing and new threats, revitalizing extremism and radicalism. This would provide a platform to extremist group to enter Bangladesh's mainstream politics, opening avenues to intensify their efforts of propagating extremist ideologies. This resurgence could cause a spillover effect, extending beyond Bangladesh's borders, including Pakistan. After the ouster of Hasina’s government, JeI has been overtly operating from their old office in old Dhaka.

This can embolden the recruitment efforts and operational activities near India’s sensitive borders. Bangladesh shares a long, porous border with India’s northeast. India has been battling against terrorism emanating from Pakistan. Bangladesh's Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus met Pakistan's PM Shehbaz Sharif on the sidelines of the D-8 summit in Cairo. Calling for a strategic relationship, both Pakistan and Dhaka's coziness deepened New Delhi's anxieties. The move of waiving off the 100% physical inspection condition of consignments from Pakistan raises fear of illegal weaponry reaching extremists in Bangladesh that can be used against India. Known for harboring the lethal terror outfits, a possibility of clandestine networking with Pakistan could provide the extremist groups in Bangladesh a greater operational freedom. The ISI could supply extremist groups and their affiliates with funds, weapons, and training to anti-India insurgent groups that could foment unrest in India’s sensitive regions. The use of social media to propagate false narratives against India could severely harm the social fabric of the country.

Another extremist group is  Jama’at Mujahideen Bangladesh. Founded in 1998, a Bangladeshi Sunni extremist group was designated as a terrorist organization in 2018. The central government of India has also banned Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh and its manifestations in 2019. The group seeks to overthrow democracy, liberalism, socialism, and secularism and aims to establish an Islamic state in Bangladesh. Its ideology aligns with al-Qa’ida’s global jihadist agenda. JMB has displayed their sympathy for Myanmar’s Rohingya Muslims, many of whom reside in refugee camps near Bangladesh’s eastern border. As per Australian national security, the JMB group not only operates within Bangladesh but also from India’s border areas of West Bengal and Assam. Their activities align with the aim of building a regional presence linked to a concept of the ‘’prophesied war of India’’ and is responsible for carrying out an attack in Indian subcontinent.

The test of India’s Neighborhood First Policy

The deepening fault lines, strained relationships, and trust deficit pose challenges to India’s Neighborhood First policy. The evolving situation with the unpredictable nature of New Bangladesh tests India’s ability to navigate in a highly turbulent neighborhood, where domestic political dynamics are critical in shaping and influencing the stability of the region. The dynamics in Bangladesh, traditionally a friendly neighbor under Sheikh Hasina’s regime, have changed dramatically. The tension with Bangladesh highlights the underlying policy’s vulnerability to domestic political transitions in its neighbor. The limitations on India’s way to engage effectively with multiple political parties in Bangladesh—beyond the Awami League—created a dependency that left India caught in a delicate position during political shifts. As the challenges are manifold, it won’t be a straightforward task for India to navigate this crisis.

The situation in India’s neighborhood remains precarious, exacerbated by strained relations that deepen existing fault lines in South Asia—one of the world’s most volatile regions. This not only undermines India's ‘Rising India’ ambitions but also casts a shadow on its strategic objectives. The ambiguity surrounding connectivity projects eclipses India’s efforts which is not only crucial from the economic and security perspective but holds immense significance in fostering people-people ties.

The China Factor and record level debt in South Asia

The lack of clarity surrounding the strategic projects and initiatives shifts the axis of its neighboring countries towards China. Beijing's growing influence and assertiveness in India's neighborhood and maritime sphere is extremely concerning. Vital for China's BRI, Bangladesh holds strategic importance for China in the Bay of Bengal area. India's continuous warnings about the dangers of succumbing to China's debt are frequently ignored, leading to its neighboring countries falling into the vicious cycle of debt, losing their key strategic assets after defaulting on their payments. It's a matter of high concern that debt owned by countries in South Asia and Africa has multiplied in recent years, and the common denominator in all of this is China.

China is not only the largest lender but also a primary lender to these countries. Financially distressed Pakistan is reeling under Chinese debt that increased from 7.6 billion dollars in 2016 to 26.5 billion dollars in 2022. As Sri Lanka also struggles to stabilize its fiscal health, it struck a deal with the Export-Import (EXIM) Bank of China to address approximately $4.2 billion of its existing debt. Hambantota port, strategically located on key trade routes connecting Southeast Asia, Africa, and West Asia, is on a 99-year lease in 2017 with China as cash-strapped Sri Lanka failed to meet its repayment obligations for its construction. Bangladesh’s debt increased from $0.97 billion to $6 billion. Maldives debt rose from $0.3 billion to $1.2 billion. Similarly, Nepal is also drowning in Chinese debt. The Pokhara International Airport project has been funded by a $215 million loan provided by the Chinese EXIM Bank. The interest rate on this loan stands at 2%, significantly higher than the rates offered by World Bank and Asian Development Bank, which range between 0.25% to 0.75%.

Conclusion

As an emerging rising power, India aspires to become a leader of the Global South, holding an aim of Rising India. However, one thing continues to stare India, on one side it faces the opportunity of a rising East Asia, while on the other, the presence of turbulence continues to plague South Asia, limiting its reach and influence. In this critical moment, India’s leadership won’t be viewed from its economic growth but by its diplomatic strategies and ability to address regional stability. The world watches, as India’s trajectory will not only shape its own future but also the stability of the wider region.

Disclaimer: This paper is the author's individual scholastic contribution and does not necessarily reflect the organization's viewpoint.

Ruchika Sharma is pursuing MA in Diplomacy Law and Business from O.P Jindal Global University.  She is interested in the evolving dynamics in the world of international politics.