Dealing with Pakistan: How India can chart out a security roadmap for Kashmir

Terrorism should be made extremely costly for Pakistan. Islamabad must realise that it is beyond its capacity to bear such costs.

Dealing with Pakistan: How India can chart out a security roadmap for Kashmir

Analysis

By: Dr. Abhinav Pandya

Pakistan’s terrorism against India is comprehensive and spans across multiple domains, i.e., individual, social, religious, technological, economic, cultural, and political. Most importantly, at its core, it is not geo-political but an ideological war against infidels.

Pakistan is only a manifestation of extremist, totalitarian, and predatory ideology, which purports universal imposition of Islamic fundamentalism. Kashmir is one of the labs of this experiment, while several new labs are already emerging in India, such as Kerala and West Bengal. The modus operandi may have some minor and superficial differences in different theatres; however, in essence, it remains the same, driven by the same extremist ideology.

Having outlined the fundamentals of Pakistan’s jihad against India, it is imperative to think of a long-term solution. Here also, it must be clearly understood that due to the strategic blunders made in the past, the problem has nearly acquired an irreversible stage. One can see that in Kashmir, where the common population has undergone massive and intense Islamist radicalisation to the extent that Al Qaeda and ISIS find recruits and sympathisers in Kashmir.

In Kerala, ISIS was successful in recruiting more than 100 youth. In Bengal, it seems that it is just a step away from a violent civil strife between Hindus and Muslims. Hence, finding and implementing solutions will be a highly challenging task.

Analysing and charting a roadmap for Pakistan’s comprehensive Jihad requires a detailed exercise that cannot be done in a single article; therefore, in this piece, let’s focus on Kashmir-specific solutions.

Addressing the Infiltration Loopholes

The focus must be on fixing infiltration loopholes. The security agencies need to investigate what exactly is failing our anti-infiltration systems. This issue needs a holistic and deep investigation and rectification. If there are requirements of high-tech and advanced equipment, it needs to be addressed immediately, or if there are other concerns related to intelligence and guarding of the borders, they need to be addressed.

Foreign terrorists are infiltrating from the Jammu and Punjab region, where they have built an excellent OGW network. In Punjab, foreign terrorists were spotted in several border districts.

Undoubtedly, Pakistan is using the Khalistani elements to facilitate the entry and operation of its Jihadist groups. Besides, narcotics smuggling and addiction are proving to be Punjab’s nemeses. Pakistan-sponsored terrorists are using narcotics smuggling to finance their activities and hire OGWs and arrange shelters and logistics. In the Jammu region, particularly the Doda-Pooch-Rajauri region, the Gujjar tribals are alienated, getting indoctrinated with extremists and separatist ideology. We need to focus on the Gujjar community by addressing the genuine issues.

Revitalising HUMINT

The special forces in J&K need to revive, strengthen, and improvise their human intelligence network (HUMINT). In the world of intelligence, even the most advanced technology is not a perfect substitute for HUMINT. Technical intelligence (TECHINT) can always complement it but not replace it. HUMINT, based on traditional tradecraft such as infiltrating and exfiltrating terrorist groups and their support system in Pakistan, can enable us to develop a much better understanding of Pakistan’s intent and help us make strategic forecasts of the future security threats and effectively counter them.

This requires major changes in policing and intelligence. Kashmir is a complex state. Bringing young IPS officers from other cadres and appointing them as district police chiefs without sufficient experience and exposure is bound to fail. In the districts, police officers with strong exposure to and experience in counter-terrorism can be posted as police chiefs. They can also be from J&K police cadre. In the J&K state police cadre, there are veterans who served in the heydays of militancy in the late 1990s and 2000s. They have robust experience in cultivating and establishing HUMINT networks in those days when India did not have advanced TECHINT capabilities. Along with this, the special forces can also enhance coordination between various intelligence agencies and, in operational matters, among the security forces.

Community Outreach

Community outreach must be given a high priority. In the present situation, common people from various regions and communities feel alienated due to several reasons, such as lack of political representation, bureaucratic arrogance, administrative delays in work, corruption, inefficient grievance redressal mechanisms, etc. Strong roots in the local communities can be helpful in providing first-hand intelligence.

Crackdown on Islamist Outfits

Radical Islamist, separatist, and extremist organisations, individuals, and clerics must be made dysfunctional. Organisations like Jamaat-e-Islami, radical Deobandi clerics, Tablighi Jamaat preachers, and Maulvis driving the jihadist agenda need to be identified, and stringent actions must be taken against them.

Reviving Village Defence Committees

Village Defence Committees (VDCs) need to be revived and strengthened. Since the Jammu region remained dormant for several years, the VDCs, which played a crucial role in the 1990s, have become nearly dysfunctional. They need to be revived and their members be given advanced training and weapons. Also, they need to be equipped with skills to track the cyber activities of terror groups on social media, which can be helpful in identifying signatures left by militant groups.

Dismantling Local Support System

Local support systems of terrorist groups need to be dismantled. The individuals and organisations facilitating their work must be identified and neutralised. The state must make sure that alleged terrorists like Engineer Rashid do not get an opportunity to contest elections.

Carrot and Stick Policy

Patriotism and nationalism need to be incentivised. The government should make it clear that welfare and economic growth are for people who shun and abhor terrorism. For extremists and separatists and their sympathisers, the toughest action, including neutralisation, is the only option.

Global Diplomatic Pressure

Internationally, India must build intense diplomatic pressure on Pakistan in the multilateral forums and through public diplomacy. Pakistan’s support for terrorism must be exposed ruthlessly in the internal media and academic circles.

Talk Tough

It must be clear now that the diplomatic and internal security initiatives have failed to rectify Pakistan’s behaviour. As mentioned earlier, all our peace proposals have not even scratched the surface of Pakistan’s consciousness, if it exists. Hence, the only effective option left now is a military option, and it has shown us results in the past. Whenever Pakistan received military setbacks, such as in 1948, 1965, and 1971, Islamabad did act like a ‘good boy’ for some time.

The Kargil embarrassment and finally Uri-Balakot kept Pakistan well-behaved, at least for some time. Hence, India must reciprocate and retaliate in such a manner that Pakistan realises the cost of inflicting wounds on our soldiers. India can also use its leverage of being an upper-riparian state. For once, Delhi must abandon its overly moralistic mindset and use water to force Pakistan to surrender. Also, India can make sincere efforts to add substantially to Pakistan’s economic woes.

Second, India should pull up strings in Balochistan, Sind, the Af-Pak-Durand area, and Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir. This must be consistent and sustained with specific objectives. The objective should be embroiling Pakistan in its internal issues to such an extent that it has no will or appetite for the external adventures.

Other options include intensive surgical strikes in Pakistan, covert actions, and, if required, a swift and short-scale war. India’s superiority lies in conventional war, and Pakistan does not have the capability to sustain the war beyond ten days. India must exploit this weakness. Terror should be made extremely costly for Pakistan. Islamabad must realise that it is beyond its capacity to bear such costs, and this can happen with hard, brutal, and tough military action against Pakistan.

Disclaimer: This paper is the author's individual scholastic contribution and does not necessarily reflect the organization's viewpoint. The article was first published in Firstpost