Facing Israel: Iran’s Risky Road Ahead

Commentary 

By Preeti Khenta 

After a long phase of shadow war between Israel and Iran, the conflict in West Asia has come to a decisive turn. Both countries are now directly confronting one another. The military strike by Israel, Operation Rising Lion, on Iran’s nuclear sites is just the latest chapter in this ongoing turmoil. This development is likely to shift the paradigm in West Asia.  For years, both nations have been doing this shadow war, but now their tension has boiled over into open conflict with full force. Israel defended these military strikes on Tehran’s Nuclear program by labelling it as an Existential threat.

Reports suggested that Iran has enriched enough uranium to develop a nuclear bomb at any moment. In the past, Israel has explored every way to thwart Tehran’s march towards becoming a nuclear weapons state. The Israel Intelligence Agency, Mossad, has launched multiple covert operations aimed at eliminating key Iranian nuclear scientists and military leadership.

While the world has been consumed with conflicts, the Israel-Hamas War has sparked significant turmoil in the Middle East.  The violence started when Iran’s proxy terrorist group launched a surprise attack on Israeli civilians on October 7, resulting in the hostage-taking of 251 Israelis. Since then, Israel has been targeting Hamas and its leadership in Gaza. Israel's elimination of Ismael Haniyah, the political leader of Hamas, in Tehran in 2024 is the biggest blow to Tehran’s morale. Throughout this conflict, Israel has been engaging with the Axis of Resistance, which includes groups like Hezbollah, Yemen’s Houthis and IRGC (Quds Force), all acting as Iran’s terror proxy.

In response to Israeli military strikes, Iran has launched a series of retaliatory attacks on Israel. They have been deploying a range of ballistic missiles such as Sejjil-2 and Haj Qassem. These ballistics breached both the Iron Dome and THAAD defences, resulting in significant damage and casualties. So far, Iran has fired approximately 450 ballistic missiles alongside 1000 drones, specifically targeting key Israeli cities like Tel Aviv, Haifa and Jerusalem.

As of now, the USA has not been directly involved in the conflict; however, they have actively supported Israel’s defence against Iranian missile and drone attacks. President Trump convened a meeting in the Situation Room and is considering a direct military strike on Iran. Israel has pressed the US to deploy its Bunker Buster bomb GBU-57, a 30,000-pound Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bomb, specifically designed to penetrate deep underground, targeting Iran’s deeply buried Fordow nuclear facility located 30 km north of the Iranian city of Qom at a former IRGC base. In response, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, along with its military officials, have issued a warning to the US about potential retaliation against US bases and assets in the Middle East. Additionally, Iran's proxies, including Hezbollah and Iraqi militias, have also threatened the US if it decides to escalate its engagement in the conflict.

On the other hand, Iran's allies, China and Russia, have been vocal in condemning Israel’s military actions, labelling them as unprovoked and a violation of international law, which poses a threat to regional stability. However, there is currently no evidence of direct military involvement. While there are unconfirmed reports suggesting that China’s cargo planes have been spotted in Iran’s airspace, the military assistance provided by China remains ambiguous, and there is no conclusive evidence supporting these allegations. Meanwhile, Russia is preoccupied with the ongoing Ukraine conflict; therefore, its commitment to support is limited. Nevertheless, there have been unverified assertions that it could assist Iran by deploying its Zircon missile or providing intelligence. Although it continues to maintain diplomatic relations with Israel, and it is reluctant to confront the US and Israel directly. As a result, the strategic partnership with Iran is more about tactical operations than a full-fledged military alliance.

Israel has also issued warnings that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei could become a target.  The Israeli Defence Minister has even compared him to Saddam Hussein, stating that he “cannot continue to exist”. Similarly, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu also stated that Khamenei's death would not escalate the conflict but rather bring it to an end. Recent targeted Israeli strikes and assassinations of military leadership, including the Chief of IRGC, Hossein Salami, and the Armed Forces chief of Staff, Mohammed Bagheri, have significantly weakened Khamenei’s inner circle and leaving him increasingly isolated and vulnerable.

Although Israel can target Khamenei via an air strike or infiltration of his Vali Amr Protection Corps, but his increased isolation and tight security protocols make such an operation a daunting task. Additionally, if Khamenei has to be killed, his son Mojtaba would likely be the next successor, which could imbue the Ayatollah with a sort of Martyrdom, reminiscent of Karbala, that would unite the whole of Iran. Iran is currently rife with internal dissent and a strong lack of military leadership, leading to significant instability and chaos.  However, a regime change is the only viable solution left for Israel to stabilise the region against the threat from nuclear weapons and a prolonged war.

Disclaimer: This paper is the author's individual scholastic contribution and does not necessarily reflect the organization's viewpoint.