How Assad’s fall in Syria will embolden terror groups in India

As if Islamabad, Kabul, and Dhaka were not enough, the most recent addition of Syria to the list of anarchic ‘badlands’ and failed states will intensify Delhi’s terror threats multifold

How Assad’s fall in Syria will embolden terror groups in India

Analysis

By Dr. Abhinav Pandya 

In the last four years, the toppling of functional governments led by democratically elected leaders in Afghanistan and Bangladesh and the autocratic Assad regime in Syria by Islamic terrorist organisations, along with the ragtag groups of Islamists, has escalated India’s security threats. As if Islamabad, Kabul, and Dhaka were not enough, the most recent addition of Syria to the list of anarchic badlands and failed states will intensify New Delhi’s terror threats multifold.

Although Syria is 4,000 km from India, the impact of the recent geopolitical developments in Damascus will inevitably be felt later or sooner. The question arises: How will the events unfolding in Syria affect India?

First and foremost, with Bashar al-Assad’s ouster, India has lost a friend who always supported India on the Kashmir issue. India and Syria have civilisational and historical ties. The bilateral relationship between the two countries started immediately after India’s independence, and Syria became a core member of Jawaharlal Nehru’s Non-Alignment Movement. In return for supporting Kashmir, India supported Syria’s claim on the Golan Heights, conquered by Israel in the 1967 war.

In 2017, Assad supported India on the terrorism issue. India started re-engaging with Syria in 2023 after regional heavyweights like Saudi Arabia and the UAE revived their bilateral ties with Damascus. Union Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, V Murlidharaan, visited Syria and met Assad. India also offered humanitarian aid and development assistance to Syria. More recently, it invested in solar and thermal power in Syria.

With Assad out, most of these bilateral engagements come to a standstill. However, the broader fallouts of the regime change will haunt India for much longer than some of the above-mentioned immediate setbacks. Al Qaeda affiliate Hayat Tahrir Al Sham, leading the rebel groups, has emerged as the most powerful group in Syria. Most likely, HTS, led by Al Jawlani, a global terrorist with a bounty of $10 million, will play a crucial role in the new political set-up that emerges. Even if there is an anarchical situation with different groups and factions controlling various parts of Syria without any systematic and functional political arrangement,

HTS will be a mighty player in Syria’s jihadist and political landscape. Such an organisation with organic ties to transnational terrorist groups like Al Qaeda and ISIS is bound to be a most fertile ground for jihadists of all hues and colors. Academic studies prove that failed states with dysfunctional political and administrative set-ups are havens for terrorist organisations.

The cases of Al Shahab, Boko Haram, the Taliban, Jamaat Nusrat Al Islam wal Musalmeen (JNIM), and the Islamic State in Greater Sahara, in Somalia, Nigeria, Afghanistan, and the Sahel region, respectively, are robust examples of failed states becoming the hub of terror outfits. In the absence of a strong law and order structure, such regions are the hotbeds of terror groups and related illicit activities like drug and weapons smuggling, human trafficking, counterfeit currency, and terror funding systems. And in extreme cases, these ‘badlands’ are also convenient markets for radioactive materials.

India faces terror threats from an array of Islamist terror groups supported by Pakistan, such as Hizbul Mujahideen, Lashkar-e-Toiba, and Jaish-e-Mohammad; their proxies like The Resistance Front, People’s Anti-Fascist Force, Kashmir Tigers, etc, global terror groups like AQIS and Islamic State–Khorasan Province (ISKP); and domestic Islamist groups with linkages to international actors, such as the Popular Front of India (PFI) and Jamaat-i-Islami. These threats have increased multifold after Narendra Modi’s rise to power in 2014 because the BJP government adopted a zero-tolerance approach against terrorism. Also, the so-called ‘deepening of communal fault lines’ and perception of the Modi government as anti-Muslim by Islamist organisations in India intensify this threat.

In Syria, dominated by HTS, anti-India terror outfits will find safe havens for recruitment, terror funding, narcotics, smuggling, training, etc. They will get easy access to advanced weapons and drone technologies. In such black markets, it is easier to fetch chemical weapons and radioactive materials. Besides, their ties with global and West Asian terror groups will strengthen, enabling them to learn and copy the latter’s playbook in South Asia. Further, as a logical outcome, the victory of jihadists in Syria will embolden the jihadists and extremists of South Asia, just the way the Taliban victory emboldened the radical segments among Indian Muslims.

In general, such jihadist victories will be packaged and presented as the victory of pious and religious entities against infidels. They will form a major constituent of the propaganda war of terror groups. At some stage, these narratives are likely to impact common Muslims also because they are presented with a strong religious argument. The impact of West Asia jihadist developments is quite evident from the fact that around 100-plus Indians moved to Syria and Afghanistan to join IS.

India’s challenges will also be compounded by the robust presence of Turkey in Syria’s post-Assad political landscape. Turkey has been one of the key supporters of HTS, quite expectedly, in line with Turkey’s ties with an array of global jihadist actors. Against the backdrop of Turkey’s anti-India stance on Kashmir, alleged covert relations with India’s domestic Islamist actors, and strong ties with Pakistan, Ankara’s powerful presence in Syria does not bode well for India’s national security interests.

With its deep strategic footprint, Turkey can further Pakistan’s devious agenda, support, facilitate, and expedite its anti-India activities, and upgrade its anti-India capabilities. However, HTS has not yet exhibited any overt anti-India stance. Its neutrality has enabled India to navigate and facilitate the return of its citizens from post-Assad Syria. HTS’ relatively pragmatic approach vis-à-vis its jihadist parent entities and attempts to establish a political and governance structure in Syria do offer some respite. Nevertheless, given its jihadist credentials and affiliations and Turkey’s decisive influence in Syria, India’s security concerns cannot be ruled out.

Disclaimer: This paper is the author's individual scholastic contribution and does not necessarily reflect the organization's viewpoint. The article was first published in Firstpost