How Bangladesh cosying up with Pakistan is a major security concern for India
With strong ties with Bangladesh, Pakistan will exercise tremendous influence over these Islamist radicals and anti-India northeastern insurgents

Opinon
By Dr. Abhinav Pandya
Amidst the persecution, atrocities, killings, and brutal suppression of minorities in Bangladesh, particularly the Hindu minority, dominating the news space in digital and print media, the most concerning development for India’s long-term security interests, ie, the growing proximity between Bangladesh and Pakistan, is eluding the adequate attention that it should receive from the security analysts and policy wonks.
Following the ouster of the Sheikh Hasina government, Bangladesh has emerged as a hotbed of Islamic extremism, intolerance, and extreme anti-India sentiments. Hindus have been attacked, and their houses and places of worship have been vandalised. Bangladeshi news channels have crossed all limits of civility in spewing venom against India, and the interim government has adopted harsh anti-India rhetoric. The bilateral ties are at their worst, on the verge of a complete breakdown. Notably, all these developments are accompanied by a spurt of unexpected and extraordinary momentum in Bangladesh-Pakistan relations. It appears like a structural overhauling and complete rejuvenation of the bilateral ties between the two.
Some of the overt manifestations of this renaissance, akin to a passionate resurgence of intimacy and love between the old lovers, include Bangladesh’s decision to nullify the Hasina government’s 2019 order, making a no-objection security clearance certificate mandatory for Pakistanis applying for Bangladeshi visas. The interim government has eased the visa rules and instructed all Bangladeshi missions worldwide to expedite Pakistani visa applications and ensure that the visa acquisition process for Pakistanis is smooth. Islamabad has also lifted import restrictions and decided to import 25,000 tonnes of sugar from Pakistan. In connectivity, both countries have restarted direct flights, stopped in 2018, and re-established maritime links after 47 years. Placing new orders in arms and ammunition, the Yunus government has also placed orders for 40 tonnes of RDX, 2900 high-intensity projectiles, 2000 units of tank ammunition, and 40,000 rounds of artillery ammunition.
Besides, the two Islamic countries are also contemplating resolving long-standing issues about the 1971 war of Bangladesh’s independence. In an interesting development, the Yunus government has decided to remove Mujib-ur-Rahman’s pictures from Bangladeshi currency, one of the last few traces of Mujib’s legacy, and replace it with the images of recent anti-Hasina student unrest backed and fuelled by pro-Pakistani Jamaat-i-Islami. Mujib’s legacy was always a major friction point between Dhaka and Islamabad.
Further, on the 76th death anniversary of Jinnah, the Dhaka National Press Club fondly remembered him and heaped praise on him, with one of the prominent members stating that “without Jinnah, Pakistan would not have come into existence, and without Pakistan, Bangladesh itself would not have been born.” In addition to these overt manifestations of bonhomie, a lot is happening behind closed doors. Credible intelligence inputs indicate that an officer training exchange program has started between the Bangladeshi and Pakistani armies.
Why Should India Worry?
If overthrowing the Hasina government was a shocking setback to Delhi, Dhaka’s strengthening ties with Pakistan are a serious concern with huge strategic and security repercussions. It is pertinent to mention that despite India’s crucial role in liberating Bangladesh, the Islamists of Bangladesh, led by religious groups like Jamaat-i-Islami and political parties like the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, have always hated India. The Jamaat leaders, many of them alleged of heinous war crimes, murders, and genocide, continued to nurture strong ties with Pakistan. Its former emir, Moti-ur-Rahman Nizami, was hanged for his involvement in the Demra massacre.
Many hardcore members of the Jamaat killing squads found their way to the US, where they continued to play an active role in strengthening Islamist charities and civil society organisations. Chowdhury Moinuddin, a member of the Al Badr killing squad, shifted to the UK and established Muslim Aid, one of the most influential Islamist charity groups. Another Al Badr leader, Ashraffuzzaman Khan, moved to the US, where he is a member of the Islamic Circle of North America (ICNA), an Islamist civil society and charity group known for its rabid anti-India stance on Kashmir, CAA-NRC, and minority issues. There, they engaged in massive anti-India activities, particularly on the Kashmir issue.
Jamaat and its student wing, Islamic Chatra Shivir, played a central role in the anti-Hasina movement. In the past also, Jamaat has been arduously active in Islamist radicalisation and terrorist activities in Bangladesh. Under the umbrella of Jamaat-led Islamisation, an array of Islamist and terrorist groups emerged, such as Ansarullah Bangla, Jamaat-ul-Mujahiddin Bangladesh (JMB), HuGI Bangladesh, etc. They have maintained robust ties with the ISI. Jamaat wields massive power in the current interim government, functioning almost like a parallel government. It has been at the forefront of attacks on Hindus. Pakistan’s growing proximity and penetration in Bangladesh imply the strengthening of Jamaat and its affiliate Islamist religious and terror entities.
Jamaat is the most powerful conduit and a proxy for Pakistan in Bangladesh. Since the Yunus government has removed the mandatory security clearance for Pakistani visa applicants, it will be much easier for the ISI to park its hardcore jihadist cadres in Bangladesh, from where they can be easily infiltrated into India, settled in the sensitive Siliguri corridor, already a hotbed of Islamist jihadi elements with an overwhelming size of Muslim population. In the past, when the Jamaat-supported BNP government was in power between 1991-96 and 2001-05, Bangladesh became a crucial link in the Pakistan-sponsored terror nexus.
Jihadist masterminds like Masood Azhar and Sajjad Afghani infiltrated India from Bangladesh. Bangladesh emerged as one of the key Jaish centers. Bangladeshi authorities arrested a local Jaish operative, Bilal Mondal, along with four other Jaish terrorists alleged to have played a key role in the IC-814 hijacking. In 2009, the inputs squeezed out of the FBI interrogation of 26/11 masterminds David Coleman Hedley and Tahawwur Rana, Pakistani-origin US and Canadian nationals, respectively, led to the unearthing of deep-rooted Lashkar cells in Bangladesh, proving that the country had become a hub of LeT’s widespread South Asia network.
Many Lashkar jihadis plotting to attack the US and Indian missions under the guidance of their Pakistani handlers were arrested. LeT operatives started working in the Rohingya settlements in Chittagong and Cox’s Bazar. In Bangladesh, the LeT developed robust ties with local terror groups like JMB, notorious extremist groups involved in training insurgents of India’s northeastern terror groups like the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA). On the Myanmar-Bangladesh border, LeT developed a robust presence to recruit Rohingyas for terror activities in India. Several LeT and Al Qaeda jihadist commanders from Pakistan visited Rohingya camps.
In the backdrop of this analysis, it can be reasonably argued that under the Jamaat regime, Bangladesh will transform into a satellite state of Pakistan and emerge as a hub of global jihad akin to theatres like Afghanistan. Further, it seems that the state is fast descending into complete anarchy and chaos where, ultimately, a nexus of Jamaat thugs, radical Islamists, and an Islamised army will reign. In such a scenario, it is likely to emerge as a nodal point for transnational terrorist groups like al-Qaeda in the Indian subcontinent (AQIS) and the Islamic State–Khorasan Province (ISKP), who are desperate to expand their network in South Asia. They can get a ready supply of recruits from the unemployed, disgruntled, and radicalised youth of Bangladesh.
Also, Bangladesh’s strategic location in the global drug trafficking routes will make it a lucrative terror-funding channel. With strong ties with Bangladesh, Pakistan will exercise tremendous influence over these Islamist radicals and anti-India northeastern insurgents. This threat becomes more alarming in the context of the growing Islamist radicalisation and polarisation among Indian Muslims. ISI’s Bangladesh setup will be much more helpful vis-à-vis the Kashmir setup in infiltrating Rohingyas and other illegal immigrants, weapons and drug trafficking, spreading terror networks, and orchestrating and executing terror attacks in the Indian hinterland.
Lastly, with Hasina’s ouster, India has lost vast hydrocarbon reserves in the Bay of Bengal, large enough to mitigate India’s energy dependence on the US or China. Also, Pakistan’s services will be readily available for rent to China and the Western deep state for all kinds of anti-India dirty jobs. China’s efforts to revitalise the Pakistani Navy suggest its intent to encircle India in a maritime domain. Pakistani naval activities in the Bangladesh region will be a significant threat to India’s national security if seen in the larger context of the India-China war scenario. To put pressure on India, China can activate its Pakistani friends in Bangladesh to prop up militant groups, supply arms, etc.
New Delhi must consider Bangladesh a new conventional and hybrid war threat and prepare accordingly.
Disclaimer: This paper is the author's individual scholastic contribution and does not necessarily reflect the organization's viewpoint. The article was first published in Firspost.