Iran’s Fate under Threat: President Raisi’s Tragic Helicopter Crash

Explainer

By: Preeti Khenta 

The helicopter crash involving Iran's President and Foreign Minister has caused widespread shock in the region. Reports indicate that no survivors have been found. The helicopter carried Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, the governor of Iran's East Azerbaijan province, and other officials and bodyguards. Raisi was returning from a trip to Iran's border with Azerbaijan to inaugurate a dam alongside Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev.

The helicopter crashed or made an emergency landing in the Dizmar forest between the cities of Varzaqan and Jolfa in Iran's East Azerbaijan province, near its border with Azerbaijan, under circumstances that remain unclear. Initially, Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi said the helicopter was forced to make a hard landing due to the bad weather and fog.

Who is Ebrahim Raisi?

Raisi is seen as a protégé to Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and a potential successor for his position within the country's Shiite theocracy. Under the Iranian constitution, if he died, the country's first vice president, Mohammad Mokhber, would become president. Khamenei has publicly assured Iranians that there would be no disruption to the operations of the country as a result of the crash.

Raisi has been under sanctions from the US and other nations due to his role in the mass execution of prisoners in 1988. He led Iran's judiciary before entering politics and was involved in the death commission that conducted unfair retrials of political prisoners, militants, and others at the end of the Iran-Iraq war. According to a 1990 Amnesty International Report, it is believed that up to 5,000 people were executed.

Iran is currently led by the Shiaite Theocrat, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. During his presidency, he supported the country's enrichment of uranium to near weapons-grade levels and hindered international inspectors as part of its confrontations with the West.

He also endorsed the security crackdown on all dissent following the death of Mahsa Amini in 2022 by Iran's moral police for not wearing the hijab properly. The month-long security crackdown resulted in the deaths of over 500 people and the detention of over 22,000 individuals.

Countries including India, Russia, Iraq and Qatar have made formal statements on the incident.

Saudi Arabia, which is traditionally a rival of Iran although the two countries have recently made a rapprochement, said it stands by Iran in these difficult circumstances.

Response from Israel

Israel has not yet responded officially. Last month, after an Israeli attack on an Iranian consular building in Damascus resulted in the deaths of two Iranian generals, Tehran retaliated by launching hundreds of missiles and drones at Israel. Most of these were intercepted, and tensions have seemingly calmed down since then.

Tensions have never been higher than they were last month, when Iran under Raisi and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei launched hundreds of drones and ballistic missiles at Israel in response to an airstrike on an Iranian Consulate in Syria that killed two Iranian generals and five officers.

Israel, with assistance from the United States, Britain, Jordan, and other countries, managed to intercept nearly all of the incoming projectiles. In retaliation, Israel reportedly launched a strike against an air defense radar system in the Iranian city of Isfahan, resulting in no casualties but delivering a clear message.

The sides have waged a shadow war of covert operations and cyberattacks for years, but the exchange of fire in April was their first direct military confrontation.

 Will the chopper crash create problems in West Asia?

The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas has escalated, involving other Iranian allies and posing a risk of triggering a broader conflict. This volatile situation could be exacerbated by unforeseen events, like the disappearance of a helicopter carrying top officials.

Israel has long considered Iran its primary threat due to Tehran's contentious nuclear program, ballistic missiles, and support for armed groups dedicated to Israel's annihilation. On the other hand, Iran perceives itself as the primary supporter of Palestinian resistance to Israeli governance and has consistently advocated for the eradication of Israel.

Raisi, a hard-liner viewed as a protégé and possible successor of Khamenei, chastised Israel last month, saying "the Zionist Israeli regime has been committing oppression against the people of Palestine for 75 years."

"First of all we have to expel the usurpers, secondly we should make them pay the cost for all the damages they have created, and thirdly, we have to bring to justice the oppressor and usurper," he said.

Israel has been implicated in numerous operations targeting high-ranking Iranian military figures and nuclear scientists over the years. Although there is no concrete evidence linking Israel to the recent helicopter crash, Israeli authorities have refrained from making any statements regarding the incident.

Arab nations in the Persian Gulf region have historically regarded Iran with suspicion, which significantly influenced the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain's decision to normalize relations with Israel in 2020. This suspicion has also prompted Saudi Arabia to contemplate a similar course of action.

Hamas issued a statement of concern for Raisi and his companions on Sunday, saying: "We express our complete solidarity with the Islamic Republic of Iran, its leadership, government and people."

Iran has provided financial and other support to Hamas and the smaller but more radical Palestinian Islamic Jihad over the years. These groups were involved in the Oct. 7 attack into Israel that triggered the Gaza war. However, there is no evidence that Iran was directly involved in the attack.

Lebanon's Hezbollah militant group, which is Iran's most advanced proxy, has been engaged in a low-intensity conflict with Israel since the beginning of the Gaza war. Both sides have been exchanging attacks almost daily along the Israel-Lebanon border, leading to tens of thousands of people fleeing on both sides. So far, this conflict has not escalated into a full-blown war, which would be catastrophic for both countries.

Disclaimer: This paper is the author's individual scholastic contribution and does not necessarily reflect the organization's viewpoint. 

Preeti Khenta is a Senior Program Coordinator at Usanas Foundation and a Ph.D. candidate at the Jindal School of International Affairs, O.P Jindal Global University. She holds a Master’s degree in Diplomacy, Law and Business. Her research areas include Islamic Theology, Terrorism and Peace and Conflict studies.