LTTE: The curious Improbability of a Tamil Tigers Resurgence

Jul 31, 2024 - 00:49 Updated: Aug 3, 2024 - 16:30

LTTE: The curious Improbability of a Tamil Tigers Resurgence

Analysis

By Rana Reddy

In recent times, A critical question has emerged: to what extent does the potential for the group's resur g ence pose a tangible threat to Sri Lanka's stability and security? The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam LTTE, infamously known as the Tamil Tigers, were a formidable separatist organization that waged a brutal civil war in Sri Lanka for nearl y three decades . Their fight for an independent Tamil homeland, fueled by perceived discrimination and marginalization of the Tamil minorit y b y the Sinhalese ma j orit y g overnment, resulted in immense bloodshed and suffering. This policy backgrounder seeks to answer this question by examining the complex interplay of factors that could contribute to the LTTE's revival, including unresolved grievances, economic instability, external support, and

the exploitation of digital platforms for propaganda and recruitment. The LTTE invented the suicide vest, built a “navyˮ, in later years even a small “air forceˮ, forcibly recruited child soldiers and routinely pushed infirm civilians to battle front lines as

“coversˮ and “human shieldsˮ. LTTE also assassinated a Sri Lankan President , Indiaʼ s former PM Ra j iv Gandhi and at least 55 other parliamentarians , activists, police officers and j ournalists.

Despite their defeat in 2009, questions about the potential resur g ence of the LTTE continue to surface as the Pakistanʼs intelligence agency, ISI is trying to revive th e Liberation Ti g ers of Tamil Eelam LTTE in Tamil Nadu, reported The Island Online.

Lingering Grievances and Emerging Threats

The specter of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam LTTE reemerging as a potent force in Sri Lanka looms large, fueled by a confluence of persistent and evolving factors. While the LTTE was militarily defeated in 2009, the underl y in g g rievances that initially propelled the group to prominence remain largely unaddressed. Th e Tamil communit y in Sri Lanka continues to experience perceived discriminatio n and mar g inalization, fostering an environment of discontent that could be exploited by those seeking to reignite the separatist movement.

Adding fuel to this fire is the recent economic crisis that has engulfed Sri Lanka. The resultant social unrest and widespread dissatisfaction with the government create fertile ground for extremist ideologies to take root and flourish. Pro-LTT E elements ma y seek to capitalize on this instability , drawing support from those who feel disillusioned and marginalized by the current state of affairs. Furthermore, there are concerns about the potential for external support from Intelligence units to aid in the revival of the LTTE. Reports have surfaced alleging that Pakistan's intelli g ence a g ency , the ISI , ma y be attemptin g to reestablish the g roup in Tamil Nadu, India. Such external backing, whether from state or non-state actors, could provide the resources and logistical support necessary for the LTTE to rebuild its capabilities. In addition to these real-world factors, the digital realm has also become a battleground for pro-LTTE elements. Social media platforms have been leveraged to spread propaganda, glorify the LTTE's past actions, and radicalize a new generation of supporters. These digital efforts are particularly targeted at the Tamil diaspora, with the aim of rekindling separatist sentiments and garnering human capacity.

While the LTTE's resurgence is not a foregone conclusion, the persistent grievances within the Tamil community, socioeconomic instability, and the group's evolving tactics in the digital age.

Historical and Geopolitical Context: A Breeding Ground for Conflict

Sri Lanka's complex ethnic landscape, shaped by historical migrations and colonial legacies, set the stage for conflict. The Tamil minority, primarily concentrated in the north and east of the island, faced systemic discrimination, including unequal access to education, employment, and political representation.

Ancient Ties to India and Tensions after Independence: The historical connection between India and Sri Lanka , datin g back to the Rama y ana , fostered cultural and religious ties. The post-colonial era saw rising tensions between the Tamil minority and the Sinhalese majority, fueled by discriminatory language policies like the Sinhala Onl y Act of 1956 and unequal access to resources.

Indira Gandhiʼs Strategic Gamble:

Under Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, India initially supported the LTTE, seeing the group as a means to counter Sinhalese nationalism and maintain influence in the region. India provided militar y trainin g, arms, and safe havens to LTTE fi g hters , even establishin g trainin g camps i n Tamil Nadu . Gandhi's strategy was rooted in the belief that maintaining influence over Sri Lanka was crucial for India's regional dominance and security interests. The island nation's strategic location in the Indian Ocean made it a geopolitical prize, and Gandhi sought to prevent Sri Lanka from aligning too closely with India's rivals, such as China.

During the 1980s, India's involvement in the Sr i Lankan conflict was also driven by domestic political considerations, primarily the desire to appease the Tamil population in the state of Tamil Nadu, where the Dravidian movement had gained significant momentum.

A Lethal Rebellion: The Human Cost and Prabhakaran's Ideology

The LTTE, under Velupillai Prabhakaran's leadership, became notorious for its ruthlessness and innovative tactics . Prabhakaran's ideology was a blend of Tamil nationalism, Marxist-Leninist principles, and cult-like devotion to himself. He established a highly centralized and secretive organization, with a strict code of conduct and a cult of personality surrounding him.

Pioneering Suicide Bombings: The LTTE i s widel y credited with pioneerin g the use of suicide bombin g s as a tactic, a method they employed against military and civilian targets alike. The Black Tigers, the LTTE's elite suicide squad, carried out numerous high-profile attacks.

Human Cost: The Sri Lankan civil war resulted in an estimated 70 ,000 to 100 ,000 deaths, with countless others injured, displaced, or traumatized. The LTTE's tactics, including the use of child soldiers, forced recruitment, and the targeting of civilians, contributed significantly to this toll. The war also had a devastating impact on Sri Lanka's economy and infrastructure.

Despite the group's professed ideolo g y of fighting for Tamil self-determination and an egalitarian society, Prabhakaran lived a lavish lifest y le, enjoying luxurious accommodations and celebrating extravagant events while his followers sacrificed their lives for the cause. This stark contrast between the leadership's opulence and the sufferin g of ordinar y Tamils eroded the LTTE's legitimacy and moral standing in the present day scenario.

Casualties and Impact:

Year	Event	Location	Casualties
1983	Black July riots	Colombo and Jaffna	3,000 Tamil civilians
1987	IPKFLTTE clashes	Northern and Eastern Sri Lanka	1,000 IPKF soldiers, unknown LTTE and civilian casualties
1991	Assassination of Rajiv Gandhi	Sriperumbudur, Tamil Nadu	14 (including Gandhi)
1993	Assassination of President Premadasa	Colombo	23 (including President Premadasa)
2006 to 2009	Final phase of the Civil War	Northern Sri Lanka	40,000 (estimated)

The Indo-Sri Lanka Accord and its Aftermath:

In an effort to resolve the escalating conflict in Sri Lanka, the Indian government, under the leadership of Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, brokered the Indo-Sri Lank a Accord in 1987. The accord aimed to address the grievances of the Tamil minority through a devolution of power and the establishment of provincial councils in the Tamil-majority regions.

As part of the agreement, the Indian Peace Keeping Force IPKF was deployed to Sri Lanka to oversee the disarmament of militant groups, including the LTTE. However , the LTTE re j ected the accord and turned against the IPKF, leading to a blood y conflict that claimed the lives of over 1 ,000 Indian soldiers.

The LTTEʼs rejection of the accord and its subsequent attacks on the IPKF marked a significant turning point in the conflict. It not only undermined Indiaʼs efforts at mediation but also strained relations between India and Sri Lanka, as the Sri Lankan government grew increasingly distrustful of Indiaʼs intentions. In the aftermath of the failed accord, the LTTE gained significant support and resources from the Tamil diaspora and sympathizers in Tamil Nadu . The state government, led by the Dravida Munnetra KazhagamDMK party, provided safe havens, financial assistance, and even weapons to the LTTE, further fueling the conflict. The LTTEʼs rejection of the Indo-Sri Lanka Accord and its subsequent attacks on the IPKF were driven by a deep-seated fear that Rajiv Gandhiʼs return to power would lead to a crackdown on the groupʼs activities and a renewed Indian military intervention in Sri Lanka. This fear, coupled with the LTTEʼs uncompromising stance on an independent Tamil state, ultimately led to the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi in 1991.

Rajiv Gandhi's Assassination

The assassination of former Prim e Minister Ra j iv Gandhi on Ma y 21 , 1991 , serves as a chilling testament to the depths of violence the LTTE was willing to employ in pursuit of its goals. This act of political terrorism not only claimed the life of a prominent leader but also irrevocably altered the trajectory of the Sri Lankan conflict. The shockwaves of this event continue to reverberate today, shaping perceptions of the LTTE and influencing counter-terrorism strategies.

This assassination demonstrated the LTTE's ability to extend its reach beyond Sri Lanka's borders, highlighting the potential transnational dimension of the threat it poses. The subsequent crackdown on LTTE support networks worldwide, triggered by the assassination, provides a comparative framework for assessing current efforts to counter the group's resurgence.

The assassination serves as a poignant reminder that the roots of the conflict run deep and that any attempt to address the threat of resurgence must grapple with the complex historical and political factors that continue to shape the landscape. The incident remains a potent symbol for pro-LTTE elements, often invoked in online propaganda to glorify the organization's past actions and rally support for its ideology.

While the LTTE's current modus operandi may differ from its past tactics, the underlying motivations and ideological underpinnings remain largely unchanged.

The LTTEʼs actions drew attention and involvement from various international actors. Countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada, home to significant Tamil diaspora populations, faced challenges in managing LTTE activities within their borders. It was the start of a widespread condemnation and a crackdown on LTTE support networks globally.

The LTTE's Demise and the Aftermath

By the early 2000s, the LTTE was facing increasing isolation and military pressure. In May 2009, the Sri Lankan military launched a final offensive against the LTTE, leading to their complete defeat. The operation, led by the Sri Lankan government under President Mahinda Rajapaksa, resulted in the deaths of most LTTE leaders, including Prabhakaran. The Sri Lankan arm y ʼs victor y was marked by significant human rights concerns, with allegations of war crimes and civilian casualties.

The Cost of Victory: The Sri Lankan government's victory came at a high price, with credible allegations of war crimes and human rights abuses during the final stages of the conflict. The Tamil community, in particular, suffered immense losses and displacement. The UN has estimated that up to 40 ,000 civilians may have been killed in the final months of the war.

Post-War Challenges: In the aftermath of the war, Sri Lanka faced the daunting task of rebuilding and reconciliation. While significant progress has been made in terms of economic development and infrastructure, deep-seated ethnic tensions and grievances persist. The Tamil community continues to face discrimination and marginalization, and there have been limited efforts to address the root causes of the conflict.

The Prospect of Resurgence: A Looming Threat or a Distant Echo?

While the LTTE's organizational structure has been dismantled, the question of its potential resur g ence remains a concern. The group's ideology continues to resonate with some segments of the Tamil diaspora, and the recent economic crisis in Sri Lanka has exacerbated social unrest.

However, several factors mitigate the risk of a full-scale LTTE revival. The group's leadership is fragmented, its financial resources are depleted, and its support base has eroded. Moreover, the Sri Lankan government has implemented stringent security measures and maintains close surveillance of potential threats . The international community also plays a role in monitoring and preventing the resurgence of the LTTE.

Despite some attempts by pro-LTTE elements to revive the movement, including the use of di g ital propa g anda and attempts to radicalize youth, the fundamental conditions for a resurgence are lacking. The ideological exploitation by former LTTE leaders, who used the Tamil cause for personal gain while securing safe havens for their families abroad, has left a bitter legacy.

The prospects for a resurgence of the LTTE

Loss of Territory and Military Capabilities: The LTTE has lost all the territory it once controlled in the northern and eastern parts of Sri Lanka. Its conventional military capabilities have been largely crushed, and it no longer possesses the resources or infrastructure to wage a full-scale armed insurgency. While sporadic guerrilla-style attacks may still occur, the LTTE lacks the stren g th to pose a significant threat to the Sri Lankan state in the near future.

Erosion of Support Base: The LTTE's brutal tactics, including the use of child soldiers, suicide bombings, and the targeting of civilians, have eroded its support base among the Tamil population, both in Sri Lanka and within the diaspora. The failure to achieve its stated goals of an independent Tamil state has also disillusioned many former supporters. Without a stron g support base, it will be challenging for the LTTE to rebuild its capabilities or attract new recruits.

International Pressure and Counterterrorism Measures: The LTTE i s desi g nated as a terrorist or g anization by several countries, including the United States, India, and the European Union. This has made it increasingly difficult for the group to secure funding and logistical support from the Tamil diaspora. Continued international pressure and counterterrorism measures will further constrain the LTTE's ability to operate and rebuild.

The international community also has a role to play in supporting Sri Lanka's efforts towards reconciliation and ensuring accountability for past human rights violations.

The LTTE's history is a complex and tragic one, marked by violence, loss of life, and missed opportunities for peace. While the group was ultimately defeated, the underlying grievances that fueled the conflict remain unresolved. The legacy of the LTTE serves as a stark reminder of the devastating consequences of ethnic conflict and the importance of pursuing peaceful solutions to political disputes. It is a cautionary tale about the dangers of external intervention in complex internal conflicts and the potential for unintended consequences.

Power's allure breeds division, weaponizing differences to blind the masses from the machinations of those who seek control. Amidst this engineered chaos, the true victims, like the Sri Lankan Tamils , are often for g otten , their suffering overshadowed by the pursuit of dominance.

Disclaimer: This paper is the author's individual scholastic contribution and does not necessarily reflect the organization's viewpoint.

Additional Readings:

https://theprint.in/past-forward/take-care-ra j iv-g andhi-told-prabhakaran-even g ave-bulletproof-vest-before-sri-lanka-accord/1058447/ https://thewire.in/south-asia/sri-lanka-ltte-revival-impossible https://www.firstpost.com/world/indira-g andhi-helped-train-tamil-rebels-and reaped-whirlwind-13913.html https://thediplomat.com/2023/12/are-pro-ltte-elements-tr y in g -to-revive-the eelam-movement/ https://www.bbc.com/news/world-south-asia-45347956