Making Sense of the Fall of Sheikh Hasina and Regime Change in Bangladesh
usanasfoundation 
Analysis
By Arun Anand
In a dramatic turn of events after prolonged violent protests in Bangladesh, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina had to resign in haste on 5th August owing to rapid change in turn of events, which also caused her to flee from Bangladesh as she was facing threats on her life. As Sheikh Hasina is currently residing somewhere in India, it is high time to assess the current political climate of Bangladesh, the impact of the vacuum created by the absence of Sheikh Hasina, vis a vie her success and failures, and what it means for Bangladesh’s politics in the coming times.
Current Political Climate in Bangladesh
Reports from Bangladesh’s dailies suggest that the country’s political climate is very dynamic, volatile and violent. Mob justice claimed the lives of around 100 people on Monday itself after the resignation of PM Sheikh Hasina. Supporters of Awami League (Sheikh Hasina’s Party) are fearing persecution as its top brass flew from Bangladesh. There are reports of vandalising temples and deaths of minorities also in Bangladesh.
The main stakeholders in Bangladeshi politics include the student leaders who rose from the protests against the government, the Bangladeshi Army, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (led by Hasina’s arch-rival Khalida Zia), and Jamaat e Islami. All these stakeholders have different strengths and weaknesses.
Student protesters demanded an interim government led by noble laureate Mohammad Yunus, who has been popular amongst the protesters to be formed. Nevertheless, it is still unclear who others will be part of the interim government.
The second stakeholder is the Bangladeshi Army, which has a significant influence in Bangladesh. In 1975, the army was involved in the tragic killing of Bangabandhu (Bangladesh’s Father of the Nation, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman) and his entire family. This event was followed by three successive coups, firmly entrenching the army in Bangladeshi politics. In 1978, army general turned politician Ziaur Rahman formed the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and won the general elections. However, Ziaur Rahman was later overthrown by Gen. Hussain Muhammad Ershad in a bloodless coup in 1982. Ershad went on to establish the Jatiya Party in 1986, and his party won a majority, enabling Ershad to serve as president until 1990. In 1990, owing to pro-democracy protests in 1991, parliamentary democracy resumed in Bangladesh. However, the Army remained one of the most crucial stakeholders in Bangladesh’s democracy as it had an essential say in forming the caretaker government for ‘free and fair’ elections. The provision of caretaker government was ended by Sheikh Hasina in 2011.
Bangladesh Nationalist Party has been the face of opposition in front of the Awami League. It is headed by Khalida Zia (widow of Gen. Ziaur Rahman), who was under house arrest till 5th August. She has been released and is terminally ill. Despite having one of the largest cadres in Bangladesh’s politics, the party needs a leader to bank on. Zia’s son who was in self-exile in London has made a comeback. He was trying to evade alleged corruption charges against him in Bangladesh.
Jamaat-e-Islami, established in 1975, is a prominent Islamic party in Bangladesh that has historically been associated with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party. However, in the aftermath of recent protests, both Jamaat-e-Islami and its student wing, Chhatra Shibir, have been banned and labeled as terrorist organizations. The party has expanded its influence in Bangladesh with the support of its student wing. Additionally, its political ideology, which advocates for sharia and seeks to establish Bangladesh as an 'Islamic state', contradicts the country's constitution, which upholds secularism as a fundamental political principle. Jamaat-e-Islami also has a contentious history of opposing Bangladesh's independence and endorsing the Pakistan military's atrocities in Bangladesh. Furthermore, minority groups in Bangladesh are apprehensive about the party's growing political influence.
What Kind of Power Vacuum Hasina’s Ouster Has Created
Sheikh Hasina ruled Bangladesh for fifteen long years. To her credit, she has maintained a fairly secular Bangladesh, which has been, till now, safe for its minorities. In Hasina’s reign, Bangladesh emerged as one of the fastest-growing economies in South Asia and became the second state with the largest per capita income after Sri Lanka. For context, in 2013, Bangladesh had a per capita GDP of 973.8 US Dollars while Pakistan had 1259.7 US Dollars; ten years later, Bangladesh’s per capita GDP increased by about 2529 US Dollars and Pakistan’s GDP remained stagnated and far behind Bangladesh till about 1407 US Dollars. Bangladesh also improved its HDI and decreased infant mortality significantly during Hasina’s tenure.
In recent years, Bangladesh has also emerged as a favourite destination for the textile industry, where the global market enjoys many made-in-Bangladesh clothes. Hasina also effectively managed its two much larger neighbours, China and India. The world has also lauded Sheikh Hasina’s decision to accept Rohingya refugees to Bangladesh.
Bangladesh has been experiencing an economic slowdown since the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020. This slowdown, coupled with the present political chaos that Hasina dealt with the disproportionate use of force, caused her ouster from Bangladesh. It will give multiple political actors and entrepreneurs a chance to increase their gains, creating much pressure on the country’s already ailed institutions.
Ways Ahead
Any interim government in Bangladesh will have to deal with the increasing violence in the country. If violence does not stop, the logic of the post-colonial state dictates that in order to prevail law and order, Bangladesh’s Army will take centre stage in any government.
Student leaders whose demands have proven effective till now have to deal with antagonistic political forces like Jamaat-e-Islami. While student leaders want to create a just and secular Bangladesh, Jamaat, on the other hand, is a communal organisation. There can be a possible tussle between both of them. It is also essential to mention that if the student leaders go onto direct electoral confrontation with already established political forcers like Jamaat-e-Islami and Bangladesh Nationalist Party, it might have to face a setback because, in Bangladesh, political parties have a long tendency of client patron relationship with citizens. The old parties have an already established voter base, which is not the case with student leaders.
Being strategically located, the developments in Bangladesh can also be influenced by foreign powers with their vested interests in the country. In any situation, the interim government of Bangladesh faces the enormous challenge of de-escalating the levels of conflict between the supporters of different parties, securing minorities, and reasserting the faith of common people in the country’s legal and political institutions. However, there is a long road ahead for Bangladesh, and the experience of these sudden regime changes has not bode well in other parts of the world. One has to wait and watch.
Disclaimer: This paper is the author's individual scholastic contribution and does not necessarily reflect the organization's viewpoint.
