Pakistan’s High Stakes Gamble with India: A Roulette of Terrorism and Peace

Commentary

By Ruchika Sharma 

After the tumultuous elections in February, Pakistan got Shehbaz Sharif, the younger brother of Nawaz Sharif as its 24th prime minister. The elections also ignited hope that the stalemate in Pakistan and India's relations might finally see a break in the ice. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi sent a tepid congratulatory message, which was met with an equally brief response from Sharif. The hope of both the countries revisiting their bilateral ties was also assumed by the fact that Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) led by former PM Nawaz Sharif, is widely known for advocating improvising relations with India. During his tenure, Nawaz Sharif took significant steps to improve relations between India and Pakistan. His facilitation of Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee's visit to Pakistan in 1999 exemplified his efforts in this regard. Additionally, in a surprising move, then Prime Minister Sharif extended an invitation to Narendra Modi to attend his granddaughter's wedding in late 2015, a gesture that was unexpected by military leaders. In a similar vein April this year, Sharif’s heir Maryam Nawaz too signalled a positive stance. Punjab’s Pakistan CM quoted her father’s call to open the doors of friendship and not to fight with the neighbours.  

On a related note, Imran Khan, the former Prime Minister of Pakistan, had praised India’s independent foreign policy. During a Lahore rally in 2022, he spoke highly of India for its independent stance, noting that despite being a member of QUAD, India imported oil from Russia despite American sanctions. On the eve of Pakistan's 75th Independence Day, PTI chief addressed a massive rally and he publicly played out a video clip of India's Foreign Minister S Jaishankar from the Bratislava Forum emphasising India’s commitment to its people's interests. 

Amid Pakistan's politically uncertain climate due to military influence and Kashmir issue repeatedly brought to the forefront, India frequently becomes a focal point in various contexts brought up by its political class. However, the challenge in sustaining diplomatic overtures surfaced again when Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz Sharif retracted his statement he made during an interview with Dubai-based Al Arabiya TV on January 16, 2023. Initially, the PML-N leader advocated for ‘serious and sincere’ discussions with India. However, Sharif's office took a U-turn stating that such talks could only proceed after India takes back its decision regarding Jammu and Kashmir. Pakistan grapples with another serious challenge of being unable to de–hyphenate Kashmir which overshadows any possibility of re-engagement with India.

During a press conference in London in March of this year, Pakistan's Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar suggested the possibility of a reevaluation of diplomatic relations with India. This shift in stance underscores the growing importance of fostering improved diplomatic ties for Pakistan, particularly in light of ongoing economic challenges and the persistent threat of cross-border terrorism originating from the Afghanistan -Pakistan border, among other pressing issues. The relations between the two countries were further strained after India’s decision of dismantling Article 370 from Jammu and Kashmir bifurcating the state into two union territories in August 2019. India's relationship with Pakistan is among its most complex. India seeks peaceful, collaborative ties with Pakistan, which requires an environment devoid of terrorism. India frequently exposes Pakistan sponsored terrorism, presenting evidence to international forums, disclosing details of intercepted communications, and bringing instances at forefront where terrorists have been apprehended with links to Pakistan-based groups. It is widely known that Pakistan has a record of nurturing terrorists within its territory and its persistent adherence to India’s condition is challenging, as evidenced by recent cross-border terror incidents in Jammu and Kashmir which can put both the countries' relations in a frozen state for long. Pakistani suspected terrorists opened fire on a bus carrying pilgrims on the Reasi-Katra road resulting in 9 casualties and several injured. The Resistance Front, a group closely linked to Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), claimed responsibility for the attack, describing it as a renewed campaign. Additionally, recent attacks on security forces in Bhaderwah and Gandoh areas, as well as incidents involving suspected Pakistani terrorists near the International Border, underscore Pakistan's entrenched strategy, often termed as ‘war by a thousand cuts.

In the context of Pakistan, it is dancing on the tightrope between terrorism and peace and latter often seems like a utopian ideal. The ability of Pakistan to contradict itself is often on full display by acting as a messenger of peace while simultaneously using terrorism as an instrument to destabilise, especially India undermines Pakistan’s credibility. On June 6 Bilawal Bhutto Zardari tweeted celebrating Pakistan's securing of a non-permanent seat at United Nations Security Council (UNSC) for 2025-2026, all while professing unwavering commitment to ‘peace’.  The paradox of Pakistan celebrating a UNSC seat while Bilawal Bhutto tweets about peace, all while sponsored terror attacks continue to create turbulence in the region, adds a layer of irony which can’t be ignored and demands attention.

In another political development in Pakistan, President of the ruling PML–N, Nawaz Sharif statement reverberated in the political corridors when he stated that Islamabad violated the Lahore pact signed by him and former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee in 1999. Following a historic summit in Lahore, then Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee and Mr. Sharif signed the Lahore Declaration on February 21, 1999. The agreement, which envisioned peace and stability between the neighboring countries, marked a significant breakthrough. Shortly afterward, Pakistan's invasion of the Kargil district in Jammu and Kashmir led to the outbreak of Kargil war.

As Nawaz Sharif had a soft stance on India, it remains to be observed how General Munir Asim, and newly elected Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif will approach relations with India moving forward. The political landscape of Pakistan is closely intertwined with the influence of the military, which exerts significant control over key institutions and foreign policy. On the economic and security front, the military-dominated Pakistan is dealing with several issues internally including cross-border Terrorism, internal security challenges and conflict, high inflation, Pakistani rupee devaluation and dwindling foreign reserves, exhibiting characteristics of a failed state. Arresting the plunging economy of the country should be the priority to pull the financially strapped nation out of the economic crisis.  Recently, Pakistan's finance minister, Muhammad Aurangzeb, presented the Economic Survey for 2023-24. According to the survey, Pakistan fell short of its GDP growth target, reaching only 2.38 percent instead of the projected 3.5 percent. The newly elected PM Shehbaz Sharif has a road ahead full of challenges. Economic security remains precarious, Pakistan also needs to develop a robust security apparatus to protect itself from the scourge of terror activities emanating from the Pak-Afghanistan border. The Durand Line, spanning 2,640 kilometres (1,640 miles), delineates the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan which remains one of the world’s volatile and unstable areas for militant activities. Despite serving as the official border for over a century, the Durand Line remains disputed and continues to be a thorn for both sides. 

Historically, known for providing safe haven to militants, Pakistan is facing the serious repercussions of its actions. The fall of Kabul after US hasty withdrawal in 2021 and its slippage into the hands of Taliban has sparked resurgence of Tehrik-e-Taliban or Pakistani Taliban, an ideological brother of Afghan Taliban. With the Taliban seizing power in Afghanistan,the Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP), is wreaking havoc at borderlands and within Pakistan by carrying out series of attacks that have caused a stir in Islamabad. There were 650 attacks across the country resulting in the killings about 1,000 people, the majority of them from military and law enforcement agencies in 2023, making it one of the deadliest years in Pakistani history. Most of the attacks were claimed by the Pakistani Taliban.  Recently on June 9, Seven Pakistani Army soldiers lost their lives in a terrorist attack in the volatile Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. The incident occurred as a convoy of security personnel was en route to Lakki Marwat district, a known area for frequent terror attacks by radical Islamist groups. Lakki Marwat is a stronghold of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) terrorists which poses a significant threat to security forces.  Both the damage and payoffs are high for Pakistan. Known for sheltering militants the tables have surely turned dramatically for Pakistan as they thought Taliban next door to be their ally. However, the terror they nurtured has now turned to rip apart them, using its newfound influence and power against Pakistan itself.

In its counter-terrorism efforts, Pakistan has an agency called The National Counter Terrorism Authority (NACTA) focused on developing policies and strategies to eliminate terrorism. It also has: Pakistan's Action to Counter Terrorism (PACT) in Sindh, developed jointly by NACTA and UNODC. To prevent and combat terrorism effectively, it aims to enhance the capabilities of criminal justice institutions. PACT Sindh focuses on improving investigation, prosecution, and adjudication processes within the province's criminal justice system. It aims to strengthen police, prosecution, and judiciary capacities to respond to terrorist threats, conduct investigations, and ensure justice in accordance with the rule of law.

To quell militant activities, General Munir aims to combat both internal and cross-border terrorism which not only emanates from Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) but also from ethnic separatist militant groups from Balochistan. It becomes important for Pakistan to reconcile ties with India to fight this challenge. India maintains a policy of zero tolerance against terrorism and has implemented various actionable measures to combat this threat. India acknowledges that security challenges arise from neighboring countries and recognizes the impact of ongoing violence on regional peace, stability, and security. In a recent statement, India's Defense Minister, Rajnath Singh, expressed the country's readiness to offer assistance in the fight against terrorism. The pathway to achieving peace lies within fostering regional cooperation to dismantle the foundational sources of terrorism. This strategy will also contribute to economic development by reestablishing trade between the two nations and aligning with the growth trajectory of South Asia. To do this Pakistan needs to take a leap of faith but then again, in the theatre of South Asian geopolitics, one wonders if faith is a luxury that can be afforded.

Disclaimer: This paper is the author's individual scholastic contribution and does not necessarily reflect the organization's viewpoint.

Ruchika Sharma is pursuing MA in Diplomacy Law and Business from O.P Jindal Global University.  She is interested in the evolving dynamics in the world of international politics.