Ports, Pearls, and Power in the Indo-Pacific: A Geopolitical Analysis

Analysis

By: Dr Shreya Upadhyay

The Indo-Pacific region remains a theatre of dynamic geopolitical shifts, exemplified by the recent culmination of a decade-long negotiation between New Delhi and Tehran over the operation of Iran's Chabahar port. This landmark agreement, heralded as a strategic manoeuvre by India to counterbalance China's Belt and Road Initiative, however, is not without its attendant risks, chief among them being the looming spectre of potential US sanctions.

Initiated in 2002, India's interest in Chabahar port moved at a snail’s pace and faltered due to bureaucratic hurdles, political discord, and apprehensions of US backlash. It was after 2015, when Washington eased tensions after the Iran nuclear deal that year discussions between India and Iran regained momentum. In 2018, the US administration withdrew from the deal and reintroduced “maximum pressure” sanctions on Tehran, limiting operations at the Port. Despite these challenges, New Delhi managed to secure specific exemptions related to Chabahar, underscoring the delicate balancing act it must perform between strategic imperatives and international obligations. That is the expectation even now among the Delhi policymakers. India is already operating the port under the existing limited-scope agreement. In 2022, India used the port to send 20,000 tonnes of wheat as aid to Afghanistan. In 2021, it was used to supply environment-friendly pesticides to Iran.

India's strategic calculus is complicated by China's expanding naval footprint in the region, prompting New Delhi to assert its emergent role as a regional leader and security guarantor. Embracing the principles of “Mahanian” maritime strategy, India has recognized the pivotal role of port infrastructure in bolstering maritime trade and projecting power across the Indo-Pacific.

Historically endowed with a geographically advantageous position, India has embarked on ambitious port development initiatives, epitomized by the “Sagarmala project” launched during the Atal Bihari Vajpayee administration and subsequently revitalized under Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This concerted effort has yielded tangible results, with significant enhancements in cargo handling capacity, throughput, and operational efficiency across major Indian ports. The India Ports Global Limited which is a subsidiary of Sagarmala Development Company Limited, is wholly owned by the Ministry of Ports, Shipping, and Waterways, ensuring complete Indian control over the port’s operations.

In tandem with domestic endeavours, India has actively fostered regional cooperation through initiatives such as the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) Ports Conclave, aimed at fostering maritime connectivity and trade facilitation. In 2019, India and Thailand signed three MoUs to bolster connectivity in the broader Indo-Pacific region. These agreements underscore India's strong interest in its ports and its commitment to enhancing connectivity through cooperation. The recent acquisition of access to Myanmar's ‘Sittwe’ Port underscores India's strategic imperative to secure vital maritime nodes, not only for enhancing regional connectivity but also for safeguarding energy security interests. Port forms an integral part of the Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project (KMTTP), approved in 2008. It is designed to accommodate large deep-sea vessels weighing up to 20,000 Dead Weight Tonnage (DWT) and is well-positioned to meet the increasing demand for heavier vessels as maritime traffic grows. Its strategic location not only improves regional connectivity but also provides India with access to Myanmar's energy resources, thus bolstering India's energy security.

Similarly, the significance of Chabahar port extends beyond its economic potential, serving as a linchpin in India's strategic calculus vis-à-vis Central Asia and the International North-South Transport Corridor. Chabahar is only 550 nauticlal miles from Kandla port in Gujarat gives India easy access to Afghanistan, Central Asian countries, and Europe. This corridor will link the Indian Ocean and the Persian Gulf to the Caspian Sea via Iran and to northern Europe via Saint Petersburg. According to industry estimates, shipments through the INSTC route will take 15 days less compared to the Suez Canal route. On the strategic front, its proximity to the China-operated Gwadar port in Pakistan affords India a vantage point to monitor Chinese activities in the Persian Gulf, illustrating the intricate geopolitical dynamics at play in the region. India is poised to invest around $120 million to develop and operate the Shahid Beheshti Port in Chabahar besides offering a credit window of $250 million for infrastructure upgradation.

China continues to aggressively pursue operating rights for ports in the Indian Ocean Region, expand its influence in the region and secure access to key strategic chokepoints. At the heart of China’s port buildup in the region is the concept of the ‘String of Pearls’ strategy. Coined in 2003 by Pentagon it is characterized by the establishment of strategically located ports and naval bases across maritime routes.  They serve as logistical hubs and potential bases enabling China to protect its power and maritime interests in the region and poses a formidable challenge to India's regional aspirations. Chinese investments in ports across the Indian Ocean Region, notably in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Myanmar, and the Maldives, underscore Beijing's efforts to consolidate maritime influence and challenge established geopolitical norms.

Against this backdrop, India's pursuit of a robust port infrastructure assumes paramount importance, not only as an economic imperative but also as a strategic imperative to counterbalance China's expanding influence. Sri Lanka’s economic crisis and China-led supply chain impacted by Covid-19 have been eye-openers for other players in the region to be open to alternatives other than China. The involvement of private entities such as the Adani Group in port development projects, both domestically and internationally, underscores India's multifaceted approach to bolstering maritime capabilities and forging strategic alliances.

In 2023, the Adani group took control of the Haifa port in Israel expanding its footprint into the European port sector was seen in media as a move to curtail Chinese influence. Adani group is also developing a terminal at Colombo port. In fact, US is investing more than half a billion dollars in a port terminal in Sri Lanka’s capital being developed by the company which is seen as the US backing Indian interests in Sri Lanka to curtail China’s influence in South Asia. The Vizhinjam state-owned port operated by the Adani group is also expected to increase India’s international maritime trade pie.

India is also working on militarizing the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. New Delhi is ramping up military infrastructure on the island chain, such as building up capacity at Port Blair and completing a high-capacity undersea internet cable with the intend to strengthen the island’s infrastructure that will enhance the potential role of the island chain as a forward operation base.

Along with that India has entered into several deals- military and strategic with countries in the region, including Vietnam, Japan, Philippines, Singapore, etc. Under the Security and Growth of All in the Region (SAGAR) agenda, New Delhi has developed an Integrated Coastal Surveillance Network, connecting coastal radar and surveillance systems of partner states – Sri Lanka, Maldives, and Seychelles to respond to sea-based threats in real-time. 

In conclusion, India's concerted efforts to modernize and expand its port infrastructure reflect its proactive stance in navigating the complex geopolitical currents of the Indo-Pacific. By leveraging its geographical advantage and fostering strategic partnerships, India seeks to emerge as a preeminent maritime power, capable of shaping the regional order in alignment with its national interests and values.

Disclaimer: This paper is the author's individual scholastic contribution and does not necessarily reflect the organization's viewpoint. 

Shreya Upadhyay is currently Deputy Director, Kalinga Institute of Indo-Pacific Studies. Her research interests include disaster public policy in the Indo-Pacific, climate change, role of the US in Indo-Pacific, India-US relations, and security aspects in the region. She was  Assistant Professor, Christ University, Bangalore, and at the University of Petroleum and Energy Studies, Dehradun. She has been a visiting faculty at Symbiosis School of International Studies, and Flame University, Pune. In the past she has worked at several think tanks including the Takshashila Institution, National Institute of Advanced Studies, Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies. Dr Shreya was a Fulbright-Nehru scholar at American University, Washington D.C. Shreya has published in several SCOPUS, peer-reviewed journals and book chapters, and commentaries for several newspapers and websites.