Dalai Lama Succession: The Next Spark in the India-China Power Game
usanasfoundation 
Analysis
By Preeti Khenta and Prof. Sriparna Pathak
The years of speculation and an unusual struggle over the future of the 14th Dalai Lama’s reincarnation have come to a juncture as he has confirmed that the institution of the Dalai Lama will continue. This declaration places millions of Buddhists in direct opposition to China by excluding the involvement of the communist Party. The statement about his reincarnation was made during the celebrations of the 90th birthday of the 14th Dalai Lama, Tenzin Gyatso. He stated that the responsibility of the succession “will rest exclusively with members of Gaden Phodrang Trust, the Office of His Holiness the Dalai-Lama. No one else has any such authority to interfere in this matter,”- a trust he set up in 2011.
The Chinese authorities’ immediate response was to reiterate that the central government must approve senior reincarnated lamas. “The Chinese government implements a policy of freedom of religious belief, but there are regulations on religious affairs and methods for managing the reincarnation of Tibetan living Buddhas,” Mao Ning, the foreign ministry spokeswoman, said.
The reincarnation of the Dalai Lama is a core aspect of Tibetan Buddhism, specifically within the Gelug school, anchored in the belief that the Dalai Lama is the reincarnation of Avalokiteshvara, who embodies the compassion of all Buddhas. The process has been carried out for over 600 years, which involves identifying the successor of the Dalai Lama after his death. This search is guided by signs like where he was looking at the time of his death, visions interpreted from Lhamo La-tso, an oracle lake in Tibet, predictive letters or instructions left by the deceased Dalai Lama. The search party, which involves Senior monks and lamas, then look for the child within the year. Those identified as potential candidates undergo tests to confirm that they are the tulku, the reincarnated lama.
The process of this succession in Tibetan Buddhism affirms the continuity of its leadership and culture, which is why China seeks to exert control over the selection. The Gaden Phodrang is set to choose the 15th Dalai Lama, aimed at solidifying its authority over Tibet and the provinces where ethnic Tibetans are living. His Holiness, the 14th Dalai Lama, made it clear that the reincarnation will be born outside Tibet, likely in a free country such as India, rather than under Chinese control. However, the Chinese government has firmly stated that all reincarnations of senior Buddhist Lamas, including the Dalai Lama, a position that was strongly reiterated in a Tibet White paper released by China, on the 70th anniversary of its annexation.
The Chinese Communist Party’s move to appoint the next Dalai Lama has been unequivocally rejected by both the Dalai Lama and the Tibetan Parliament in Exile, which is based in Dharamshala. However, Beijing has long anticipated this scenario and has already initiated the groundwork for the selection of the next Dalai Lama. According to a report from the Guardian, the Chinese government has already constituted a committee that is actively targeting individual lamas within Tibet and offering them free trips to China and asking for their support that when the time comes, they will support the Chinese choice for the Dalai Lama and assurances are provided to them that they will not face any kind of persecution.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is laying the groundwork to avoid the repetition of the same mistake that they made in 1995 when the Dalai Lama appointed the next reincarnated Panchen Lama, a six-year-old boy named Gedhun Choekyi Nyima, without consulting the Chinese Government. Merely three days later, the appointed Panchen Lama disappeared, and the Chinese government installed a puppet in his place, which was largely rejected by most Tibetans. Despite the extensive re-education and propaganda campaign by the CCP, the settlement of the Han Chinese in the Tibet Administrative Region (TAR), persecution of activists, lamas and the banning of any image of the Dalai Lama inside Tibet, the Dalai Lama is still secretly revered by many Tibetans. The Chinese government accuses him of promoting separatism and holds him responsible for the self-immolations that Tibetans are carrying out in protest, as well as the Tibetan uprising against the CCP.
Upon the death of the Dalai Lama, the world will witness two competing Dalai Lamas – the one born in exile, chosen by the designated committee, while the second appointed by the Chinese government. There is a high likelihood that the next reincarnation could take place in India, prompting Beijing to exert immense pressure to thwart this outcome. The statement made by the 14th Dalai Lama and PM Modi wishing Birthday greetings to His Holiness and the presence of Indian Parliamentarians and Chief Ministers has a strategic significance which directly challenges China’s authority. The new succession plan will also heighten tensions with China, which has already rejected it, possibly leading to increased confrontation along the LAC.
Both the Tibetan community and the wider Buddhist Community will not accept a CCP-appointed Dalai Lama; this could lead to the disruption of Chinese religious diplomacy. Furthermore, this would also intensify China’s ideological campaigns, arrests and surveillance within Tibet by targeting monasteries and monastic educational institutions.
China has begun to exert diplomatic pressure on India; they have already lodged a formal protest over PM Modi’s birthday message and the presence of Indian officials at the celebrations. China has urged India to “act prudently” and avoid interfering in China’s internal affairs. In future, it is anticipated that China will escalate its response by increasing military presence along the Line of Control (LAC), imposing economic sanctions, or intensifying propaganda against India.
China has been actively trying to obliterate Tibet’s identity, to the extent that it now used the Chinese term ‘Xizang’ for Tibet. After the Dalai Lama’s 90th birthday the battle lines between India and China are even more clearly drawn. If the next Dalai Lama is born in India, then New Delhi should expect even more heightened aggression from China. One cannot miss the fact that China started laying claims to Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh in 1960, asserting that it was part of “Southern Tibet”. Had Tibet not been captured by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in 1950, there would be no ground for China to even raise the claim. While China had been rejecting the McMahon line from earlier, the claims to Tawang started only in 1960, which further expanded to claiming the whole of Arunachal Pradesh after 2008. The Tibet question for India is not just of pertinence on humanitarian and cultural grounds, but also for strategic reasons around sovereignty. India needs to take cognisance and prepare for further military clashes from China from here on.
Disclaimer: This paper is the author's individual scholastic contribution and does not necessarily reflect the organization's viewpoint.
