The Houthi Nexus of the Israel-Palestine Conflict: A Regional Power in the Making?

Analysis

By: Harshita Khaund

 In recent developments, Houthi rebels in Yemen have levied accusations against the United States and the United Kingdom, alleging their involvement in the fatalities of at least 16 individuals during the latest offensive strikes aimed at dissuading Iran-backed militants from targeting shipping in the Red Sea. The Houthis articulated these claims via a rebel-controlled television platform subsequent to the initiation of multiple strikes by the Western nations against 13 specific sites in Yemen. According to the US military’s Central Command, these operations effectively neutralized eight Houthi drones within Yemen and the vicinity of the Red Sea that were deemed to pose a threat to US and coalition forces, as well as commercial vessels operating in the region.

In the midst of one of the most devastating global conflicts and humanitarian crises witnessed in the 21st century, world powers have been forced to contend with the threat of an expanding regional conflict which endangers the elusive nature of peace preeminent in the Middle East. The terrorist attack unleashed by Hamas militants on October 7, 2023, which killed 1,200 people in Israel, and the subsequent Israeli response of conducting missile strikes and blockades of people and essential commodities in the Palestinian region has elicited global military responses, the most unlikely of which has been from the Houthi military rebels of Yemen.

Starting from November 19, Houthi forces, ostensibly backed by Iran, have conducted precision-guided missile attacks at cargo ships and naval vessels associated with Israel passing through the Red Sea. In the current "Red Sea Crisis," Houthi forces have issued warnings of retaliation for what they perceive as "genocide" in Gaza by Israeli forces. Their response includes the deployment of drones and missiles targeting Israel, with a promise to attack all ships destined for Israel, irrespective of their nationality. In response, the United States and the United Kingdom have conducted retaliatory strikes on Houthi military bases. These actions have raised concerns globally about a potential escalation of crisis in the region and the resulting disruption to international trade along the shortest shipping route between Europe and Asia.

 The Emergence of the Houthi Movement

 The Houthi’s motivations across the Red Sea represent their deep-rooted ideology of Islamic Fundamentalism which calls for “death to America and Israel''. While it initially started off as a cultural revivalist movement rooted in Zaydism which calls for the supremacy of the Imam as a spiritual and political figurehead, it increasingly turned into a socio-political rebellion against widespread administrative mismanagement in the Yemeni government in the 2000s. The crystallisation of mass insurgencies reached its zenith during the Arab Spring revolution of 2011, which called for the resignation of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who maintained an iron fist grip on the country’s affairs for 30 years. The change in leadership to Saudi-backed Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi as the new leader invited further opposition from the Zaydi muslims, who were increasingly frustrated with the expanding influence of Saudi-Arabian Salafi Islam in the country.

The ensuing civil war, which started in 2014, has turned Yemen into a proxy battleground between Iranian and Saudi backed forces, causing mass impoverishment and deaths in the country. In September of 2014, the Houthis seized control of the capital Sana’a, which prompted a Western-backed coalition led by Saudi Arabia to intervene in 2015 which has generated wide scale global criticism  for the death toll it has unleashed. The socio-political reorientation as a result of the war established a Houthi regime in the northern part of the country and much of the other big population centres, while the Saudi propped government based itself in Aden. A decade of conflict has left the country’s society and economy in stagnation, leading to a United Nations endorsed peace initiative. The most stark example of diplomatic efforts aimed at negotiating a truce between the two sides was evident when President Joe Biden declared the war a “humanitarian and strategic catastrophe”, pointing towards an imminent de-escalation.

Conflict Unleashed: Houthi Militant Expansion in the Region

Since 2016, the Houthi militia has continually sought to expand its naval prowess by capturing and strategically utilising the port of Hodeida in the western coast as a missile launch pad, particularly against U.S. missile warships. The expansive range of warfare capabilities which the group has been able to assume in recent years reflects the significant degree of Iranian political and military investment in the group’s activities as part of its ‘Axis of Resistance’. Iranian influence, while negligible during the initial years of the movement, gained prominence during the Saudi-backed coalition’s campaign against the Houthis in 2015. While the Houthis have, on occasion, established independent control over their operations, the growing nexus between the two allies, largely facilitated by growing relationships with Iranian proxies such as the Lebanese Hezbollah have opened channels of arms smuggling, further integrating them into the Axis.

Houthi aggression against Israel, while being a marginal source of insecurity for the latter, has nevertheless persisted through longstanding anti-semitic comments. On October 31 2023, Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Sarei declared that “more strikes would follow until the Israeli aggression stops and Palestinians are victorious”. This goes in line with the broader socio-religious representation of the militia which views itself as the ‘true defenders’ of the faith of Islam. In 2022, in the heels of the U.S. brokered Israel-United Arab Emirates normalisation deal, the Houthi militia released statements condemning the ‘betrayal’ against the Palestinian cause while launching missile strikes which killed three people in Abu Dhabi. Houthi leader Sayyid Abdul-Malik Al-Houthi defended the attacks while lambasting Saudi Arabia and the UAE for siding with “the chief enemy of the Muslim world”.

Unravelling Houthi Ambitions in the Conflict

Yemen has thus emerged as the starting ground of a much larger confrontation which threatens to engulf the region in conflict by bringing Israel and Iran into direct contestation. Moreover, the unique geopolitical location of the country in terms of its proximity to the Red Sea, which along with the Suez Canal accounts for nearly 12% of global trade, has been a security threat to Israeli interests for decades. As writer Iona Craig observes, a significant motive behind the signing of the Abraham Accords was for Israel to benefit from the UAE’s own maritime security network to counter Yemeni influence across the Bab al-Mandaib strait. Israeli forces are actively monitoring Houthi activities, including the alleged recruitment and training of over 200,000 new fighters since the start of the war as reported by spokespeople for the group.

Betul Dogan-Akkas, a researcher of the Arabian Gulf at Durham University, stated that the Houthi strategy is not merely to “reposition themselves as a key regional supporter of Palestinian resistance to Israeli occupation” but also to “cement their political authority in Yemen, especially amidst recent negotiations with Saudi Arabia to formally end the war”. Senior analyst Allison Minor of the Brookings Institution has further offered a three pronged agenda of the Houthis which includes the following tenets:
1. Advancing their ideological agenda which has recruited members under the umbrella slogan of “God is great, death to America, death to Israel, a curse upon the Jews, victory to Islam”.

2. Cement their presence within Yemen by rallying citizens to the cause of brotherhood in support of Palestinians.
3. Assert themselves as key regional players within the Iranian armed constellation, as emphasised by their social media statements which highlight the movement’s “complete coordination” within Iran’s Axis of Resistance.

The emergence of the Houthi frontline serves as a strategic mechanism to shift Israel's focus away from its own territory towards multiple fronts. This approach has the potential to deplete Israeli resources and create a psychological enclosure, ultimately aiming to compel Israel to yield under regional pressures.

Yemen: A New Battlefront in the War?

The Houthi factor in the context of the war, however, represents more of a wildcard element rather than a sustained opposition to Israeli interests. The 1000 mile distance between Israel and Yemen, coupled with the latter’s internal instability, has restricted the group to rely on its geographical location to threaten global maritime supply chains. The group’s decision to blockade international trade has forced cargo ships to reroute by transiting around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa, adding almost 30 days to the original duration of cargo and costing 35% more according to the London Stock Exchange Group’s research team. The consequent crippling of a vital trade link route has prompted the U.S. administration to sanction an international naval operation to protect commercial ships in the Red Sea, while several western allies have issued an ultimatum to the group for the “illegal, unacceptable and profoundly destabilising effects” of their attacks.

Thus, it seems unlikely that the Houthi rebel movement, with severely limited confrontational capabilities, would be capable of engaging in direct warfare with Israeli forces and U.S. aircraft career groups, namely the USS Gerald R. Ford in the Mediterranean Sea and the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower in the Red Sea. Internal socio-political dynamics further restrain the group from pursuing a reckless policy of promoting regional instability at a time when a fragile peace endures in Yemen as a result of informal negotiated truces between the rebel outfit and the Saudi-led coalition. The emergence of a new potential regional actor in the form of the Houthi rebels presents a challenge for Western and Israeli powers. These rebels have recently demonstrated an increased capability in the production of domestic drones and missiles, facilitated by a sophisticated network of arms smuggling and funding from a major regional power, Iran. Situated in a geopolitical space historically resistant to external influence and unsympathetic to Israeli interests, the Houthi rebels pose a significant threat to regional stability.

Given their readiness to confront established powers, it is imperative for the United States and other major players to approach the Houthi rebels with a cautious diplomatic strategy. Their propensity to escalate conflicts and their perceived legitimacy in opposing what they consider to be 'evil' powers underscores the need for vigilance in managing this situation.

Disclaimer: This paper is the author's individual scholastic contribution and does not necessarily reflect the organization's viewpoint.