REPORT: The War on Hamas and Its Regional and International Implications

Report

By Anoushka Banerjee

On 18 December 2023, Usanas Foundation organized a discussion titled "The War on Hamas and Its Regional and International Implications" to discuss the Israel-Hamas War and its implications on regional and international geopolitics. The compelling, comprehensive, and extremely insightful perspectives provided by Dr. Efraim Inbar helped us decipher crucial aspects of this topic and equipped us with a better understanding of the same. 

 The speaker started by explaining the intricate regional dynamics of the conflict focusing on the ‘axis of resistance’ which sets the backdrop. In describing the prevailing outlook in the Middle East, it is evident that Israel is not recognized as a legitimate actor due to religious convictions founded in the Islamic prohibition of a Jewish state in the region. A primary theme that has emerged in this context is the role of Hamas, which has been identified as a proxy for the ongoing war. The actual leader in this conflict, however, is Iran, which has successfully organized a network of proxies subservient to the interests of Iran. This network has been observed operating in various regions worldwide, including Yemen, Syria, and Iraq. The strategy employed by the 'axis of resistance' is population-centric in nature. Iran and its proxies choose a more subtle approach, realizing the difficulties of taking against the Israeli military head-on. Rather than engaging in a direct conflict, their strategy is to take advantage of what they see as the flaws and vulnerabilities that exist in Israeli society and among its citizens. Drawing similarities, he stated that the approximately 1,000 civilian casualties, when viewed in the context of the Indian population, would correspond to about 200,000 lives—a harsh demonstration of the magnitude of the losses sustained. According to Dr. Inbar, the primary Iranian approach has always been around propagating fear and unsettling the Israeli people so that they lose hope, and it will be easier for a military rule to take over. According to him, this tactic is not unique to the present conflict but has been a recurring feature in Iran's strategy. The goal of the Israeli campaign is very clear; to demilitarize the Hamas group, destroying the military capability altogether. He touched upon the actions of the Houthis in the Bab-el-Mandeb and other places which causes problems for Israel. According to a poll taken, he quotes, that 75-80% of the Palestinians do not think that Israel will ever celebrate its 100^th year which portrays the resentment of the Palestinians against Israel. There is focus on a two-state solution regarding the question of Palestine. This includes confronting the Palestinian state's formation as a revisionist entity. The entire strategy aims to target and demolish not only obvious military facilities, but also missile manufacturing capabilities and military bases linked with the Hamas group. Concerns made about the Houthis' conduct in vital regions such as the Bab-el-Mandeb highlight the complexities of Israel's challenges. Furthermore, the survey results, which show a large majority of Palestinians are sceptical of Israel's centennial celebration, serve as a severe indication of the Palestinian people's persistent hostility of Israel. He then discusses the two contemporary threats that Israel faces. The intricacy of urban warfare, where the battlefield is frequently the densely populated cityscape, is the first important challenge. The second daunting issue is the existence of tunnelways in Gaza, both above and below ground, which poses a strategic challenge for Israel in fighting future attacks from organizations such as Hamas. In the engaging Q&A session concerning Israel-Azerbaijan relations, Efraim Inbar wholeheartedly concurs that the two countries' relationship is exceptionally strong and strategically important, especially considering Azerbaijan's proximity to Iran. Israel has come to depend on Azerbaijan for energy resources as well as military supplies; the recent conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is a prime example of this dynamic. He also implicitly indicates that there is difference between what is being told about the Israel-Hamas war and Israel’s relations with other countries in the region, on media, and what is the actual reality on ground. In conclusion, Efraim Inbar's careful analysis highlighted the complex geographical variables at work while illuminating the complex dynamics of the Israel-Hamas war. He provided a nuanced perspective on the complex landscape surrounding the present situation by delving into the strategic concerns, geopolitical obstacles, and wider consequences.