Why was 9/11 not a Black Swan Event?
In the immediate wake of the 9/11 attacks, several intelligence pundits appeared shocked by how unexpected the events had been. Was it really that bad?
usanasfoundation 
Occasional Paper
Written By: Sai Charan Hussainpur
Edited By: Shivani Pandey and Preeti Khenta
Introduction
In 1998, the United States of America was the world’s sole superpower with no clear opposition on the horizon. The paradigm of nation-to-nation competition in terms of national security continues to reign. George Tenet’s testimonies before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence in 1997 and 1998 are highly indicative of the Central Intelligence Agency’s (CIA) priorities then. In both the testimonies, Tenet puts emerging nations such as Russia and China as primary challenges, rouge nations such as North Korean, Iran and Iraq and then devotes only a few lines towards the threat of terrorism albeit limiting it to state-sponsorship of terrorism making references to Iran, Lebanon, and Sudan but makes no references to Al-Qaeda in either hearing.
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