Decoding COP28: Implications for a Sustainable Future of the Global South

Explainer

By Jayendra Singh and Niharika Godara

Global Environmental Governance has made significant progress since the Rio Conference on the Environment. Several milestones, such as the Kyoto Protocol, Montreal Protocol, and Paris Agreement, have been achieved in terms of collective action to address climate change. However, the Conference of Parties (COP) meetings, which take place annually under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change umbrella, remain a consistent practice that keeps the ship afloat in terms of consistency. The COP is the highest decision-making body of the convention and is ratified by 198 countries. The first COP was held in 1995 in Berlin, Germany. The 28th COP is currently being held in Dubai under the presidency of Sultan al-Jaber. This article will discuss the significance of COPs and the major issues on the agenda.

 COP is a series of meetings where world leaders discuss global issues. COP 28 is scheduled from 30 Nov to 12 Dec and will include delegates from UNFCCC member states, industry leaders, youth activists, indigenous community representatives, journalists, and other stakeholders. It's a crucial event to take decisive actions against climate change, especially after the hottest year on record.

The conference marks the conclusion of the inaugural global stocktake under the Paris Agreement initiated at COP26 in Glasgow, a biennial process crucial for assessing collective progress and identifying areas for additional action and support, representing a two-year intensive process to evaluate worldwide progress in achieving objectives related to mitigation, adaptation, and support mechanisms. A successful outcome hinges on actionable and equitable solutions, necessitating updated contributions and climate policy instruments, including national adaptation plans. While the global stocktake takes center stage, COP28 addresses a multifaceted agenda, including the eagerly awaited Global Goal on Adaptation and strategies to phase out fossil fuels.

2023 Agenda and Highlights

The Incoming Presidency's announcement, articulated in a July 2023 letter, underscores four key paradigm shifts for COP 28. These encompass expediting the energy transition and reducing emissions before 2030, transforming climate finance by delivering on past commitments and framing a new financial deal, prioritizing nature, people, lives, and livelihoods in climate action, and mobilizing for the most inclusive COP ever. The vision outlined in the letter comprises a negotiated outcome, an action agenda, and a call to action, emphasizing a commitment to substantial and inclusive climate action. The most important, however, is the first Global Stocktake of the implementation of the Paris Agreement. Each stocktake is a two-year process that happens every five years, with the aim of assessing the world’s collective progress towards achieving its climate goals.

 The UAE hosts COP28 to showcase its commitment to sustainability and innovation through clean energy, technology, and climate-smart solutions. The conference highlights the economic benefits of inclusive climate action.

COP28 UAE Presidency aims to collaborate with the private sector and governments to fast-track energy transition, transform climate finance, ensure global food system resilience, and convene the inaugural climate-health ministerial. The conference also addresses pressing challenges such as loss and damage finance, global finance goals, and narrowing the emissions gap.

The list of events includes conferences such as “Fostering agency amongst Rural Indigenous Women Farmers of Central India tribal belt”, “How to build the capacities and skills for youth to develop a successful green career?”, and “Accelerating NDC Implementation and Addressing Global Stocktake Outcomes through TNAs” and other events, the full list can be accessed from the official UNFCCC calender website.

 Therefore, COP 28 stands as a critical moment in the global effort to combat climate change, with a comprehensive agenda addressing key challenges and outlining transformative shifts. The collaborative vision outlined by the UAE Presidency, combined with the strategic focus on inclusive climate action, positions COP28 as a milestone in the ongoing fight for a sustainable and resilient future.

Implications and Policies

COP 28 carries a lot of weight in terms of implications for the global challenge of climate change as well as the future of the Global South states. The implications of COP28 for the Global South and other vulnerable countries are significant, given the disproportionate impacts of climate change on these regions. The conference presents an opportunity to address key issues of concern to these countries, including climate finance, adaptation, and the phase-out of fossil fuels. These implications also carry policy implications within them since countries will include these in their NDCs. Some of the key areas where these implications will land are the following:

Climate Finance:

Global South has been calling for ramping up climate finance to meet the $100 billion pledged by developed countries under the Paris Agreement. The Global South has been receiving the majority of climate finance, which is focused more on mitigation (reducing emissions) than on adaptation (responding to the impacts of climate change). The Global South needs this funding to adapt to the impacts of climate change, rather than to reduce emissions that it did not cause. The Loss and Damage Fund which entails further information.

 Adaptation:

The Global Goal on Adaptation, which involves setting a suitable target for adaptation in Global South countries, will be determined at COP28. The Global South bears the greatest burden of the climate crisis impacts and needs funding to adapt to these impacts. It is essential to ensure that the Global South receives this compensation, especially for vulnerable populations, to achieve climate justice and equity.

Phase-out of Fossil Fuels:

The Global South, including countries in the African continent and the Least Developed Countries (LDCs), has been calling for a "phase out" of fossil fuels to reach the 1.5-degree Celsius warming target under the Paris Agreement. The COP28 negotiations will be challenging given these demands and expectations. India’s stance on this will be a key factor in how it handles its future commitments amidst a tighter deadline for the 1.5-degree goal.

Loss and Damage Fund:

The Loss and Damage Fund agreed upon in COP27, was finally operationalized, however, the fund itself has not met the expectations of the beneficiaries and shown signs of dominance by institutions like the World Bank, for the interim period at least. The amount committed as of now ($450 million) does not meet the expectations of billions which are required to solve the issues in the countries which need it the most. Therefore, the actual implications on policy and its impact are yet to be decided.

Technology Transfer and Capacity Building:

The Global South needs technology transfer and capacity building to help expand low-carbon industries and adapt to climate change. The COP28 presidency has called upon both private and public sector stakeholders to support such efforts. Technology transfer, however, also comes with its politics, and where countries like India are situated between already established processes such as the chip wars, will decide the course of action for these activities.

In summary, the implications of COP28 for the Global South and other vulnerable countries are significant in terms of climate finance, adaptation, the phase-out of fossil fuels, the management of the Loss and Damage Fund, and technology transfer and capacity building. The outcomes of this conference could have far-reaching effects on these countries' efforts to combat climate change and adapt to its impacts.

New Resolutions:

 The unveiling of the draft resolution for a 'loss and damage' fund at the 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) in Dubai represents a historic milestone in the global approach to addressing climate change. This resolution signifies the culmination of a three-decade-long endeavor by low- and middle-income countries seeking compensation from high-income nations for the adverse impacts of climate change. The fund, designed to provide crucial financial support to countries most severely affected by climate change, garnered an impressive commitment of over US$400 million in pledges within days of its announcement on November 30. Notably, this achievement is not only a triumph for the international community but also reflects a significant success for the host UAE. Despite pre-conference criticisms from climate campaigners, the UAE's leadership Sultan Al Jaber, who chairs both the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company and the state-owned renewable energy company Masdar, played a pivotal role in advancing this groundbreaking initiative. This development underscores the UAE's commitment to addressing climate challenges and highlights the potential for collaborative efforts to drive impactful solutions on the global stage.

The UAE Declaration for COP28 aims to enhance food systems, bolster climate change resilience, mitigate global emissions, and support the global effort to combat hunger.

118 governments have pledged to increase global renewable energy capacity three times by the year 2030. This move aims to diminish the proportion of fossil fuels in the world's energy output.

Disclaimer: This paper is the author's individual scholastic contribution and does not necessarily reflect the organization's viewpoint.

Jayendra Singh is a Final year student at the Jindal School of International Affairs pursuing MA in Diplomacy, Law and Business. His research interests lie in the field of Global Environmental Governance, Green (IR), and caste studies.

Niharika Godara completed her graduation in Political Science Hons from DU and currently pursuing Masters in International Relations from JGU. Her interest areas are geopolitics and diplomacy and the role of international institutions in addressing global challenges.