Thailand and Cambodia border dispute turns Violent: Conflict Explained and Military Assessment

Analysis

By Ruchika Sharma 

The existing tensions between Thailand-Cambodia over the disputed border area sharply took a dangerous turn following deadly armed clashes after the 2011 conflict. Both countries share more than 800 km of land border. The conflict broke out near Ta Moan Thom Temple, involving heavy gunfire, shelling and rocket fire. Thailand conducted air strikes using F-16 fighter jets on Cambodian territories near the Preah Vihar Temple area. The armed confrontations have spread from 6 to 12 locations across the border. At the time of writing, at least 32 people have been killed and dozens are injured on both sides. Due to conflict, thousands of people fled their homes near the border, triggering displacement and humanitarian crises. In Thailand, more than 100,000 civilians have been displaced across several border provinces, while 1,500 families were evacuated from Oddar Meanchey province of Cambodia. As per Khmer Times, the historical and strategic regions such as Ta Moan, Ta Krabei, Thmor Don, Phnom Kmoach, Bos Bov, Chom Tae, and Mom Bei witnessed gun and artillery firing. Social media has also turned into a battleground of heated exchanges between users from Thailand and Cambodia. 

As the tensions continue to mount, Thailand has declared martial law in eight provinces and refused third-party mediation, preferring bilateral mechanisms to resolve the ongoing conflict. Thai officials have warned that if their sovereignty is threatened, they are prepared for large-scale operations. The Thai acting PM Phumtham Wechayachai has warned that the conflict between the two could turn into a  "war". Both sides continue to accuse each other of starting the conflict. Cambodia has also accused Thailand of using cluster bombs. The defense ministry of Cambodia condemned the use of cluster bombs, which are banned under the Convention on Cluster Munitions to which Thailand is not signatory. On the other hand, Thailand has accused Cambodia of using Russian-made BM-21 rocket launchers and heavy artillery along the disputed borders. 

A Russian B-21 rocket launcher in Cambodia. Source-AFP

Since the start of the year, the relations between the two countries have spiralled down. On February 13, Cambodian civilians singing their national anthem near the Prasat Ta Moan Temple were escorted by Cambodian Soldiers. Thailand military officials also stopped their civilians, citing violations of mutual tourist protocol agreements. The site, being a part of a larger archaeological complex, is home to other Khmer-style Hindu temples, including Prasat Preah Vihar and Prasat Ta Muen Thom, which are central to the dispute. The conflict around these sacred areas has fueled nationalist fervour in both Thailand and Cambodia. After the clashes, Thailand and Cambodia agreed to meet through the Joint Border Commission; however, the tensions continued, and troops continued to remain deployed along the border. 

Source- BBC

Tensions on the border erupted once again on May 28 when one Cambodian soldier was killed near the Emerald border, which connects Laos, Thailand and Cambodia. After this, on June 22, Cambodian PM Hun Manet announced halting their reliance on Thai electricity and internet infrastructure, banning Thai films, import of fruits and vegetables, and evacuating its diplomatic staff. Amid deteriorating relations, on June 15, Thai PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra called former Cambodian leader Hun Sen. The leaked call between the two created a political storm in Thailand, sparking widespread protests across the nation, and leading to her suspension by the constitutional court on 1st of July. 

Following the previous skirmishes, another incident unfolded when three Thai soldiers were injured due to landmines on July 16. Thailand alleged Cambodia of placing the Russian-manufactured landmines where the soldiers were patrolling in the disputed area. Cambodia denied installing fresh land mines, stating that Thai soldiers entered into the area littered with mines from previous wars. Cambodia reiterated its commitment to the Ottawa Convention, which prohibits the use of anti-personnel mines. However, the Thai army claimed to have found 10 Russian PMN-2 type new landmines in the disputed area between Ubon Ratchathani and Cambodia’s Preah Vihear Province between July 18-20. As per the Cambodian Mine Action Centre, around 4-6 million landmines are buried in Cambodia. The data reveals that between January-April 2025, five people have been killed and several were injured due to mines and unexploded ordnance. 

What do Thailand and Cambodia Say?

Both the sides have levelled accusations against one another for initiating the conflict. As per the Thailand’s version, tensions escalated after drones were deployed by Cambodian forces to surveil Thai troops. As per Thailand’s National Security Council (NSC), the firing was initiated by Cambodian troops, which prompted Thai retaliation. Thailand has also accused Cambodia of using BM-21 rocket launchers, which have destroyed several homes and facilities across the border. Conversely, Cambodia claimed that the conflict started in the morning at 7:30 AM on Thursday when Thailand violated the agreement by advancing toward a Khmer-Hindu temple. On Friday, Lt. General Maly Socheata, in a press conference, stated that F-16 fighter jets were used by the Thai forces to bomb Preah Vihear Temple, Wat Keo Sikha Kiri Swarka, and Ta Krabey Temple. Thailand also shelled Banteay Ampil District, Oddar Meanchey province.

Cause of Dispute
Dedicated to Lord Shiva, the Preah Vihear temple was built during the Khmer Empire rule in the 11th century. This unique architectural site is at the heart of this armed conflict. Citing a 1907 French drawn map, the International Court of Justice ruled that the temple lies within the territory of Cambodia. Thailand argues that it never formally accepted the delineation. However, ICJ concluded that Thailand accepted the map and ordered the withdrawal of troops. Tensions ignited again in 2008 when Preah Vihear was successfully registered as a UNESCO World Heritage Site by Cambodia. Thai nationalists objected to this, which led to armed clashes, culminating in a deadly conflict in 2011 that killed at least 15 people. In 2013,the  ICJ decision reaffirming that the surrounding areas also belonged to Cambodia further deepened the animosity between the two.

 The regional dynamics were significantly altered due to French colonization in the 19th century, birthing conflicts.  France compelled Thailand, then Siam, to cede various territories. The 1907 treaty returned Battambang and Siem Reap to Cambodia, and the contentious map was introduced, which lies at the centre in this ongoing dispute. While Cambodia agrees to the ICJ’s ruling, Thailand argues that parts of the border, particularly close to Ta Muen Thom and Ta moan Thom remain unresolved. Even after establishing a joint Border Commission in 2000 a little progress has been achieved to resolve this long-standing dispute. Currently, Thailand continues to assert that a 4.6 sq km area around the temple is not settled.

‘’Call for Peace to end the conflict’’ 

Amidst the heavy gunfire exchange between the Southeast Asian neighbours, Malaysian PM Anwar Ibrahim, also the chair of ASEAN expressed concern and offered to mediate, "calling peace the only option available’’.However, Thailand is declining to prefer bilateral mechanisms to resolve the dispute. Cambodian PM Hun Manet called Thailand's stance regrettable. The US also expressed deep concerns over the conflict.

Analysing Thailand and Cambodia's relations with China and the US

Notably, in the development of the events, it is also important to view the role of alliances. China and Cambodia share a strong relationship with each other. Cambodia purchases most of its weapons from China as well as Russia. As per the South China Morning Post, Cambodia might use Chinese weapons in the ongoing conflict. As per China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, China and Cambodia share significant bilateral ties. The trade between them reached $17.8 billion in 2024, up 20.3% year on year. Chinese exports totalled $15.3 billion, and imports reached $2.4 billion. In April 2025, President Xi Jinping visited Cambodia and met Cambodian PM Hun Manet. Both leaders affirmed their commitment to the China-Cambodia strategic partnership, highlighting their "iron-clad friendship". The Chinese president highlighted the role of the China-Cambodia Intergovernmental coordination and the 2+2 strategic dialogue between the foreign and defense ministries. Cambodian Prime Minister  Hun Manet called Beijing its most trusted partner. China and Cambodia have held 6 Golden Dragon joint exercises and the Peace Angel medical drills. The Golden Dragon Joint exercise conducted in May this year was described as the largest to date and included live-fire training sessions, highlighting strong military cooperation between Beijing and Phnom Penh. Notably, 95 percent of weapons are sourced from China by Cambodia. Referring to Xinhua news agency, during the ASEAN-China-GCC summit in Kuala Lumpur in May this year, Hun Manet met Chinese Premier Li Qiang. Cambodia voiced its continued support for China’s one-China policy and its stance on Taiwan, Hong Kong, Xinjiang and Tibet.

As Cambodia remains heavily contaminated with landmines, Chinese Defense Ministry spokesperson Zhang Xiaogang stated that China has helped Cambodia to tackle this challenge, reflecting Beijing’s commitment to foster stability in the region.  In 2024, China’s PLA Army Engineering University hosted demining programs for Cambodian personnel.  Cambodia, also a member of BRI, witnesses a significant influx of Chinese tourists; however, this year the numbers have declined. In 2024, around 8,48,952 Chinese tourists visited Cambodia.

As the conflict continues, there is another assessment regarding the role of the US, which might be seeking to regain its waning influence in the region. The scores of the event indicate that Southeast Asian states, including allies of the US, are tilting towards China's axis. Its relationship with Thailand, one of the key allies of the US, is strong on significant fronts like economic and defense. Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra visited China in February this year on an official visit. As per MOFA, Chinese President Xi Jinping described the bond as “China and Thailand being one family”. The discussion between the two leaders also focused on boosting infra and investment involving the implementation of major initiatives like the China-Thailand railway. As researcher Zhu Ming quoted in SCMP, “as the US is in strategic retreat, China might further bolster its cooperation within the region”. The relationship between China and Thailand was elevated to a comprehensive strategic partnership of cooperation in 2012, with the latter also being a part of BRI. Both nations share robust economic ties, as this is exemplified by Thailand being one of China's largest trading partners for the 11th consecutive year in 2024. Meanwhile, another US ally in the region, Vietnam, also maintains strong relations with Beijing. Despite the ongoing US-led trade war, economic and political relations between China and Vietnam continue to witness robust growth. In April this year, China's president, Xi Jinping, reaffirmed its commitment to strengthen supply chain ties with Hanoi to counter the US tariffs. While Vietnam faces a twenty percent US tariff, on the other hand, on the defense front, China and Vietnam will be conducting their first-ever joint army training exercise, focusing on joint border patrol. This signals towards deepening military ties between both the nations.

Amidst the ongoing tensions and growing conflict, the Southeast Asian nations, including traditional US allies, aligning with the China axis, could trigger great power competition in the region involving Washington and Beijing. Several experts are of the view that in order to regain its influence in the region, the US may be doubling down on military and strategic footholds. In the midst of all this, Southeast Asia faces a heightened risk of both visible and latent conflicts. According to a report by The Diplomat, there is a potential establishment of a US base at the Hang Nga Naval Base on Thailand's southwestern coast, which carries broader implications that extend beyond the border dispute.

 
Analysing the Military capabilities of Thailand and Cambodia

In a recent article by the Global Times, Chinese military expert Zhang Junshe was quoted. Junshe stated that Thailand holds a technological advantage from a military perspective. 

As per the International Institute for Strategic Studies, Thailand’s military capabilities dwarf Cambodia. IISS in Military Balance 2025 stated that “Thailand has a well-funded military, and its air force is considered as advanced and best trained in South East Asia”. In the 2024 rankings on the basis of military capabilities of 27 regional nations, Lowy Institute Thailand occupied 14th and Cambodia held 23rd position. As per IISS, Thailand’s Defense budget last year was $5.7 billion and it has over 3,60,000 active personnel. Thailand has 400 battle tanks , 2600 artillery weapons, along with a fleet of aircraft, UAVs and helicopters. On the other hand, Cambodia has 1,24,300 active personnel and its defense budget stood at $1.3 billion. The army includes 75,000 troops, over 200 tanks and 280 artillery weapons. Thailand’s airforce is considered as one of the best air forces in Southeast Asia. It has 46,000 personnel and 112 combat-capable aircraft, including 28 F-16 Jets and 11 Swedish Gripen Jets. 

Conversely, Cambodia’s air force has 1500 personnel and a comparatively limited fleet, including 10 helicopters, 10 transport planes and 16 multi-role helicopters, including Soviet Mi-17s and Chinese Z-9s. With over 70,000 personnel, including naval aviation, marines and coastal defense units, its naval fleet comprises one aircraft, 7 frigates, 68 patrol and coastal vessels, 14 landing crafts and amphibious ships. The Cambodian navy has 2800 personnel, 13 patrol vessels and one landing craft. The disparity between the countries has been due to differences in the population and GDP as well. As per the Lowy Asia Power Index 2024, Thailand, ranked 10th, is considered as a middle power, whereas Cambodia was ranked as a minor power in Asia. 

Thailand and the U.S share a strong relationship. Thailand is being designated as a major non-NATO ally by the US and enjoys American support in terms of weaponry. The US Indo-Pacific Command and Thailand host the annual Cobra Gold Military exercise to strengthen partnerships, which began as joint drills in 1982. As per the US State Department, Thailand hosts more than 900 US aircraft and 40 naval ships annually as per their defense alliance. However, in recent years, as per SIPRI, the sale of Chinese arms to Thailand has witnessed an uptick. Between 2004-2023, Thailand bought more Chinese weapons than the US.

As the conflict enters the third day, in this already volatile situation, the entry of foreign-supplied weapons holds an immense potential to trigger a major crisis, stretching the conflict and drawing the involvement of major powers. The volatility near the already disputed South China Sea adds another layer of strategic complexity, which could undermine the stability and security of the broader region. The ongoing conflict also puts ASEAN’s ability to test as the recent flare-up demands urgent broader regional cooperation. 

Disclaimer: This paper is the author's individual scholastic contribution and does not necessarily reflect the organization's viewpoint.