Redefining India-Taiwan Relations: Opportunities Amidst Geopolitical Flux

Analysis

By Sakshi Shree

Introduction

In a world characterized by ever-shifting geopolitical dynamics, nations often find themselves reevaluating their international relationships. One such recalibration is taking place between India and Taiwan. Historically, both nations have had to navigate complex geopolitical waters, balancing their interests with those of their powerful neighbours. However, the changing global landscape and shared values are presenting new opportunities for these two Asian democracies to forge a more robust and strategic partnership. This article delves into the evolving India-Taiwan relations, exploring the opportunities they offer amidst the current geopolitical flux.

Historical Context

Every country engaging with Taiwan must deal with historical complexities that have woven intricacies around Taiwan’s present-day identity. India and Taiwan share a history of diplomatic ambiguity. Taiwan was historically considered China's backwater territory, with Chinese migration to the island increasing in the 17th century and onwards. Chinese imperial governments discouraged migration to Taiwan and imposed restrictions on it, considering it strategically insignificant. Despite these restrictions, Chinese settlers migrated to Taiwan in search of better livelihoods and to escape political and intellectual persecution. Later, the Qing government ceded Taiwan to Japan in 1895, leading to Japanese colonial rule and Taiwanese resistance, including the declaration of the Republic of Taiwan, which had a lasting impact on Taiwanese nationalists' separate identity from China. Taiwan’s democratization in the late 1980s and 1990s opened up Taiwan's nationalist voices.

India, for decades, adhered to the "One-China policy," recognising the People's Republic of China (PRC) as the legitimate representative of China, which inherently included Taiwan. This stance was primarily driven by India's desire to maintain stable relations with China, one of its largest trading partners and neighbours.

However, over time, India's stance has evolved. This evolution is shaped by various factors, including China's assertive behaviour in the South China Sea, its territorial disputes with India, and the aggressive tactics employed along the India-China border. Moreover, the changing global perception of Taiwan, primarily as a thriving democracy, has garnered increased international support. In response to China's rising aggression, India is recalibrating its foreign policy, opening doors to more meaningful engagement with Taiwan.

Contemporary Relations

India-Taiwan relations have primarily focused on people-to-people contacts and cooperation, with limited strategic expectations from both sides. Taiwan has recognized the challenges of establishing a strategic context for the relationship with India and has shifted towards a more cooperative approach. While the relationship between India and Taiwan is progressing in the right direction acknowledging economic ties as the bedrock, there is a growing interest in expanding cooperation into other domains. Bilateral trade has grown nearly six-fold from USD 1.19 billion in 2001 to almost USD 7.7 billion in 2021.

Taiwan's New Southbound Policy aims to strengthen relations with South Asian countries, including India. This policy aligns with India's Act East Policy, providing a potential avenue for deeper engagement. Strong people-to-people relations between India and Taiwan can serve as a foundation for future ties and act as shock absorbers. The objective is to establish a relationship where institutions matter more than individuals, ensuring its sustainability despite geopolitical pressures. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in Taiwan has shown interest in building India-Taiwan relations through low-key initiatives and maintaining regular contact with India. The DPP has expressed a desire for military and intelligence cooperation with India, highlighting India's significance in their foreign policy vision.

Opportunities Amidst Geopolitical Flux

In an age of geopolitical flux and uncertainty, strategic alignments that were heretofore considered beyond the pale are attracting significant attention. While economic, educational and people-to-people ties between India and Taiwan have grown steadily over the past decade, the looming shadow of the One China Policy has thus far inhibited serious discussion of security cooperation between New Delhi and Taiwan. The deterioration of the understanding between India and China, and India's increased willingness to adopt a more hardline position vis-a-vis Beijing and Taiwan's ongoing struggle with key security concerns necessitates a review of the possibilities for closer security cooperation.

Challenges in Strengthening Security Ties

At the outset, it is imperative to state that security ties between New Delhi and Taipei have remained stunted for a number of reasons. First, India's challenging but undoubtedly critical relationship with Beijing hangs Damocles-like over the relationship. While India’s initiatives like the Quad, security cooperation with Taiwan will run the risk of very publicly crossing the reddest of Beijing's red lines. Second, domestic politics in Taiwan remains somewhat fractured over the question of closer ties with India. In the absence of a clear consensus in Taiwan on closer ties with India, security ties may be perceived by Delhi as a bridge too far given that changes in administration may dampen enthusiasm for cooperation. Finally, while Taiwan's tussle with China over the World Health Organisation (WHO) membership and incursions into the former's Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) has garnered increased popular sympathy in India, a strong mutual understanding at the societal level does not exist in either country. Building enhanced security cooperation between both nations requires a degree of public support and understanding which is in short supply in present times.

Collaborative Approaches to Cybersecurity

There is much low-hanging fruit that India and Taiwan can and should begin work on. Cybersecurity, in particular, presents a shared concern as both nations grapple with a rise of close to 20-40 million cyberattacks a month on their key infrastructure.

Countering Disinformation through Collaborative Efforts

Both nations also face challenges with countering disinformation and fake news that originates from both domestic and foreign actors with potentially devastating consequences for public trust and democracy. India can benefit from Taiwan's comprehensive approach to combat disinformation. Joining the Taiwan-led Global Cooperation and Training Framework (GCTF) alongside India-aligned nations like the United States and Japan can enhance India's expertise in countering cybercrime and disinformation. Leveraging the India-Taipei Association (ITA) within the GCTF can facilitate informal discussions, workshops and cooperation on various critical security issues.

Strengthening Disaster Resilience

Another key area for cooperation is non-traditional security concerns like Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR). To boost cooperation in non-traditional security areas like disaster resilience, Taiwan can be accorded membership or observer status in India-led international efforts like the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI).

Fostering Innovation and Collaboration

Indo-Taiwanese cooperation on New and Emerging Strategic Technologies offers a blueprint for possible cooperation. A tightly knit consortium of government organizations, universities and research labs collaborate to fund and develop key technologies of the future in Artificial Intelligence, Internet of Things (IoT) and nano-technology. This relationship could be taken forward by involving India's Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) fledgling New and Emerging Strategic Technologies (NEST) Division that can guide scientific research towards critical technologies for national security and competitiveness.

Enhancing Defence Ties

Despite carrying a restrictive defence relation between both nations, Taiwan maintains an informal defence attaché in the Taipei Economic and Cultural Center (TECC), and its representative office in New Delhi, India has not reciprocated with a similar gesture. Traditional methods of building ties between military establishments such as academic exchanges between defence universities and joint training at the Command and Staff Colleges have also been underdeveloped. While bilateral military exercises may be perceived as a risky provocation, New Delhi and Taipei can lay the groundwork for increased defence cooperation with some immediate moves.

Navigating China's Shadow

No discussion on India-Taiwan security relations can ignore the elephant in the room: China. Some of New Delhi's caution undoubtedly stems from the fact that any decision it makes on Taiwan must always cast a wary eye towards Beijing's reaction. While it may be argued that India's relationship with Taiwan should follow a strategic logic independent of Beijing, this is a view that curries little favour among India's foreign policy elite. However, there are some ways that New Delhi and Taipei can thread the needle and build security ties while managing Beijing.

conclusion

India and Taiwan stand at a critical juncture in their relationship. The changing global dynamics, coupled with economic complementarity, shared values, and common security concerns, provide compelling reasons to explore deeper engagement. However, both nations must tread cautiously, considering the complexities and potential risks involved. A well-nurtured India-Taiwan partnership could not only be mutually beneficial but also contribute to the broader stability and balance of power in the Indo-Pacific region. This evolving relationship is a testament to the adaptability and pragmatism of nations navigating the complex currents of international relations.

India's cautious approach toward Taiwan has historical roots and is rooted in the absence of significant economic or strategic interests in the Taiwan Strait or the East China Sea. India-Taiwan relations possess the potential to be a unique aspect of India's Look East Policy and Taiwan's Flexible Diplomacy.

Since the re-establishment of relations in 1995, India and Taiwan have primarily focused on people-to-people contacts. While there have been occasional strategic overtures, both sides have realized the challenges of establishing a strong strategic framework for the relationship. The current trajectory of India-Taiwan relations is generally positive, though it requires political guidance. Strengthening people-to-people ties can serve as a foundation for future cooperation and help withstand geopolitical pressures.

The unsettled strategic environment around India and Taiwan has thrown up some rare opportunities both sides must seize. Creative diplomacy and flexibility in strategic thinking are the need of the hour.

Disclaimer: This paper is the author's individual scholastic contribution and does not necessarily reflect the organization's viewpoint.

Sakshi Shree is a distinguished geopolitical researcher, pursuing her final year of post-graduation in Political Science at the University of Delhi. With a focus on security studies, global environment, international relations, and geopolitics, she has garnered acclaim as a Policy Officer at YOUNGO and a Research Intern at Usanas Foundation. Reach her on Twitter @shree_sakshI for insightful updates on her ongoing contributions to the field.