Target Tehran: Unpacking the Strategic Fallout of Israeli Strikes on Iran’s Nuclear Sites

Analysis

By Sharath Kumar Kolipaka

The decades-long conflict regarding Iran’s development of weapons-grade uranium and potentially developing nuclear weapons has taken a new turn with Israel conducting multiple strikes on enrichment facilities, nuclear scientists, and top military leadership in Iran. One of the strongest weapons Israel has is not its Jericho missiles but its deep Intelligence penetration into Iran’s nuclear programme. It has been made clear in many past operations how meticulous Israel is in gathering its intelligence and conducting precision strikes not only with missiles but with IEDs targeting specific persons or members of the IRGC and Iran's proxies, such as Hamas and Hezbollah. Israel was able to eliminate multiple scientists, potentially creating bottlenecks in nuclear weapons development in Iran.

Iran got sanctions relief for signing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015. From which the US withdrew in 2018 under the Trump administration, after which Iran also pulled out and resumed weapons-grade nuclear enrichment. This threatened Israel’s security and regional security as well. Israel cannot dismantle and stop the nuclear operations of Iran entirely on its own. To destroy the minor but strategically important Fordo nuclear enrichment site located 30 km north of the Iranian city of Qom at a former IRGC base, Israel needs US help for the bomb and the aircraft to carry it. The other options are to carry out a commando operation on the ground or a nuclear strike. The Bunker Buster bomb, GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOPs), has been recently used in Yemen to destroy underground Houthi targets. This happened during the US nuclear negotiations with Iran regarding the dismantlement of its nuclear and missile programme. Few people at that time considered this attack on Yemen a waste of resources, while few experts saw it as a clear message to Iran. This attack demonstrated that the USA has the capabilities for a strike on the underground nuclear sites like Fordo, and they are not afraid to use them.

The Fordo site is reportedly located around 80m underground, and Israel doesn't have its own bunker buster missiles that can penetrate this depth. The Fordo site is not only deep underground but also built into a mountain, protected by layers of reinforced concrete, making it highly resistant to conventional attacks and a challenging target even for advanced bunker-buster bombs. The battle-tested GBU-57 weighs 13,600 kg (30,000 lbs). The aircraft that can carry this bomb is the B-2 Spirit. The bombers that were used during the attack on Yemen underground targets were located in the Diego Garcia military base of the USA in the Indian Ocean. So the USA has to effectively participate in this conflict, and according to the reports that are still coming out regarding the first strike by Israel, the USA might have already participated in the strike directly. Israel has already used GBU-28 bunker-buster bombs in its recent attacks.

As of now, the attacks have not resulted in any leak of nuclear material around the sites, but there were reports regarding contamination within the site at Natanz. All the strikes on nuclear enrichment sites hold a great risk of nuclear contamination of the area and atmosphere. Any leak or contamination from such facilities could trigger international scrutiny under environmental treaties and nuclear safety conventions, potentially escalating diplomatic fallout beyond the region. Strikes resulting in nuclear contamination or civilian mass casualties could trigger broader international intervention or condemnation.

The conflict is only a few moves away from affecting the entire world with major changes. Israeli officials continue to say they have many more targets to strike, which include missile launch pads, stockpiles, and energy infrastructure. Israel attacked Iran’s natural gas production, major fuel depot, and oil refinery. But Israel has not targeted Kharg Island, where 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports are loaded onto tankers. An attack on this will disrupt oil prices and impact the energy needs of China. An attack on this facility might also result in Iran not letting any other country in the region export their oil by controlling the Strait of Hormuz. Around 20% of the world’s crude oil navigates through this strait. If Iran loses Kharg Island, it will have nothing to lose by restricting navigation through its waters in the Strait of Hormuz, as Iranian waters are the only place where tankers can navigate in this strait.

Coming to the already ongoing conflicts, the war in Gaza might get a fast end or prolong even more due to this conflict, making the region more unstable. Hamas did not seem to get any strategic relief even after the strikes, but Israel seems to maintain its steady tempo in Gaza. The Russian Ukraine conflict might get affected as the USA might have to shift its focus to Iran. This might give Russia an advantage. Russia has not made any strategic moves to support its ally Iran as of today. While the G7 has expressed its support for Israel, calling Iran a “principal source of instability”. The regional proxies of Iran, which are weakened by Israel's attacks, might gain some traction and put up new fronts for Israel to deal with and divert its resources. As the region braces for further developments, the fragile balance between deterrence and escalation will determine whether this remains a localized strike or spirals into a multi-front conflict with global ramifications.

Disclaimer: This paper is the author's individual scholastic contribution and does not necessarily reflect the organization's viewpoint.