China's Autocratic Ruler Still Has a Strong Hold on CCP and CMC : An Analysis

Analysis

By Col Vinayak Bhat (Retd)

Introduction

1. CCP’s China has been growing steadily economically, diplomatically, and militarily. The recent pandemic has not been able to break Beijing’s growth momentum.
2. The Western media has always been speculating about the Chairman Xi Jinping, especially about the power that he wields over the Communist Party and the Central Military Commission and in turn over the PLA.
3. Mainstream media (MSM) has made numerous allegations of power grab when Xi Jinping did away with the rule limiting the Chairman’s term. This important move has obviously enhanced his grip on power which some experts compared to the People’s Republic of China’s first Chairman, Mao Zedong.
4. Now that his so-called “Hubris and Paranoia” are increasing, the media outside of China is contemplating that he might be under threat internally.
5. Xi Jinping, not once has displayed any hesitation or weakness in his actions or behavior at any public event. The rumours of his weakening grip over power are unfounded and baseless.
6. This write-up tries to analyse strongman Xi Jinping’s status in the power corridors of The Great Hall of People.

Recent Events

7. Xi Jinping has been actively pursuing policies that sought to change previous incumbents’ good work that is well remembered and liked by the public at large. He has worked towards reducing the perceived influence of Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping and Hu Jintao that have left indelible mark on the Chinese society.
8. A very vivid example of this was observed when Xi Jinping started a new arrangement of Xiaokang villages along the India-Tibet border to ensure loyal Han citizenry settlement along the border. Deng Xiaoping had proposed a new policy of Xiaokang society under the policy of Four Modernisations. Both policies are diametrically opposite to each other in terms of ownership of land being with communes and individuals. Thus, with the use of similar name for a totally different policy, Xi Jinping has done away with Deng Xiaoping’s open, modern policy and consolidated power for himself through commune control.
9. Hu Jintao. The predecessor of Xi Jinping was forcibly removed from the proceedings of the 20^th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party on 22 Oct 2022. He was not allowed to vote despite his protests to Xi Jinping and Li Kejiang. His whereabouts were unknown until he appeared on 05 Dec 2022 at the funeral ceremony of Jiang Zemin.
10. Qin Gang. The ex-ambassador to the USA and present Foreign Minister Qin Gang was unceremoniously removed from his post on 25 Jun 2023, for an extramarital affair with a TV presenter Fu Xiaotian. The reasons provided at the time of his ouster was his failing health.
11. Jack Ma. The founder of The Ant Group and Alibaba was arrested supposedly for economic offences. The official reports suggested that he was forced to “embrace supervision”.
12. Liu Qiandong. Richard Liu Qiangdong, a Chinese Internet entrepreneur often called the "Jeff Bezos of China" also ‘embraced supervision’ in a very similar fashion. He was forced to donate a hefty sum of $2Bn for Beijing’s pursuit of “common prosperity”.
13. Wu Guohua. Lt Gen Wu Guohua the Deputy Commander in Chief of China’s nuclear forces, the PLARF committed suicide on 06 Jul 2023. The scandalous death occurred after Gen Li Yuchao, the Commander of PLARF was taken for questioning.
14. Meng Wanzhou. The Chief Financial Officer (CFO) of Huawei Technologies, when arrested on charges of bank and wire fraud, was released without trial due to the pressure tactics by Chinese government in a well orchestrated exchange for a Canadian businessman and another former diplomat.
15. The list of purges and strong measures adopted by Xi Jinping is unending. The modernisation embarked upon by Xi Jinping especially in economic and military fields have yielded great results. The soft power strategies around the world have also achieved diplomatic and political success. The Chinese economy although under pressure during the pandemic, has strongly bounced back and is on the path of recovery.

Comments

16. The Deputy Commander of PLARF’s controversial death and the Commander being taken away for interrogation indicates vividly that a major enquiry is being undertaken on the orders of Chairman CMC.
17. The western MSM is hoping that some kind of “Wagner” kind of revolt will happen in China too which will be able to effect regime change. However, it must be kept in mind that “Hope is NEVER a great strategy”.

Assessment

18. All the above events indicate that the strongman Xi Jinping has definitely used many a strong-arm tactics to subjugate his rivals/opponents/subordinates. The purges Xi Jinping has carried out are across the board, covering old and new political leaders, economic giants well known worldwide and very high-ranking military leaders.
19. Similarly, the modernisation drive under Xi Jinping has achieved desired goals. The return of Meng Wanzhou has also raised self-esteem of the population.
20. It is assessed, that Chairman Xi Jinping is in absolute and total control of the CMC, CCP and the country. Any news or articles stating otherwise need to be taken with a pinch of salt and must be verified from other credible sources.

Disclaimer: This paper is the author's individual scholastic contribution and does not necessarily reflect the organization's viewpoint. 

Col Vinayak Bhat (Retd) is an OSINT consultant. He is a military intelligence veteran of the Indian Army withh over 33 years in uniform. He has studied Chinese language and has worked as an interpreter in the Indian Army. He specialises in satellite imagery interpretation and analysis. He works mostly on Chinese PLA and Pakistan armed forces.
He analyses conflicts around the world through satellite imagery with special emphasis on nuclear forces. An alumnus of NDA's J/61 course & tweets as @rajfortyseven.